Two weeks of respectable cold, late January thaw?

Winter's halftime

I had to look twice. That number on the calendar this Friday is a 15.

We're halfway through January.

The halfway point of meteorological winter is quickly approaching and arrives next weekend. Winter was a no-show in December. It was the warmest December on record in Minnesota. The first eight days of January? A balmy Kansas City-like 7 degrees warmer than average.

The season formerly known as winter finally arrived last weekend with the first true sub-zero arctic front. Two more Arctic slaps arrive in the next week. The first blows in early Tuesday with more sub-zero wind chills and advisories. Temperatures moderate for about 48 hours starting Wednesday before an even stronger Arctic front blows in late Friday.

The longer range outlooks hint at a return to Pacific breezes and a January thaw the last week of January. That makes a total of about two to three true wintry weeks by the end of January. At that rate, there's a lot of pressure on February to deliver what's left of winter in Minnesota and the Upper Midwest. The strongest El Nino on record has technically peaked in the tropical Pacific, but it's still going strong. The El Nino loaded odds favor a return to milder breezes at some point in February.

Don't look now, but what may feel like the shortest winter on record is nearly halfway over.

Arctic for now

Bitter winds blow again Tuesday morning as the next Arctic air mass surges south. Wind chill advisories are up through noon. Chills to -30 will get your skin's attention.

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO NOON CST TUESDAY...

* EXPECT WIND CHILLS TO RANGE FROM 25 TO 30 BELOW ZERO BETWEEN 3AM AND 11 AM TUESDAY...WITH THE COLDEST WIND CHILLS OCCURRING AROUND 9 AM TUESDAY.

* THE COLD WIND CHILLS WILL CAUSE FROSTBITE IN AS LITTLE AS 30 MINUTES TO EXPOSED SKIN.

Gusty north winds kick our fresh snowy dusting airborne with blowing snow west of the more protected Twin Cities metro. Just ask anyone who lives even a few miles west of the edge of the hardwood forest that surrounds the Twin Cities. It's a completely different world of reduced visibility and snow-streaked highways when the wind blows in open country west of the metro.

Signs of a warm front

Another big blue H drives arctic air south into Wednesday morning. Temps moderate toward 20 degrees by Wednesday afternoon. A warm front pushes this way with milder temps and a brief warm-up by Thursday.

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Polar roller coaster

We bounce between Arctic surges and milder spikes the next week or so. The second shot of cold air early next week has the potential to produce this winter's coldest temperature. A couple days at or below zero with -15 at night for the metro? The ECMWF guidance below may be a bit aggressive, but it could be close. Either way it's going to be respectably cold early next week.

All about that Arctic Oscillation

It's amazing and wonderful how far our understanding of atmospheric teleconnections has progressed in the past 30 years. Just 20 years ago, I can remember news managers telling me to avoid using technical terms like "Arctic Oscillation" in my TV weathercasts. Working alongside WGN's Tom Skilling in Chicago, we pushed back waging a sort of meteorological revolt based on our strong belief and feedback the audience actually wanted more about why weather patterns evolved, and not just "the forecast please." As a growing body of research came back that confirmed our hypothesis, TV management began to recognize that more is better with weather. One news manager hung a sign in his office.

"It's the weather, stupid."

The Arctic Oscillation has been strongly negative the past few days. That's a favorable pattern for cold air in the Upper Midwest. The AO shows signs of going more positive late next week. That should mean milder breezes once again.

NOAA's eight-to-14-day outlook reflects the favored warmer bias by late January.

Hang in there.