Thaw! Metro hits 40, snow and sub-zero next week

Late January Thaw

Better late then never?

A well advertised Pacific front blew into Minnesota Wednesday afternoon. Temperatures responded across Minnesota as the Pacific air mass invaded on gusty southwest winds. The thermometer surged to 40 degrees at MSP Airport Wednesday at 3:07 pm, then bounced around between 39 and 40 degrees.

Meanwhile in northern Minnesota, a speedy Clipper raced through with a shot of fresh snow. Note to Twin Cities' folk in search of deep snow: There's plenty of snow around parts of Minnesota to play in if you look hard enough. Many locations in the Arrowhead and along the North Shore ridge have well over a foot of snow cover.

2 SSW Kabetogama [St. Louis Co, MN] CO-OP OBSERVER reports SNOW of 4.00 INCH at 4:30 PM CST -- LIGHT SNOW AT OBSERVATION TIME. 14" ON THE GROUND.

We come up for (drier) air briefly on Thursday before the next mild Pacific front brings another wintry mix Friday.

• 40 degrees - high temperature at MSP Airport Wednesday afternoon

• Right on average - monthly temperatures through January 27 at MSP Airport

• 18.7" season snowfall so far at MSP Airport

• -14" snowfall vs. average so far this winter at MSP

The main weather headline through the weekend is temperatures running well above average once again. A couple of light wintry mixes slide through Friday and Sunday.

Warmer than average January assured 

January ends just as it began in Minnesota. Milder than average. In the middle? An Arctic ice cream sandwich.

Temperatures running a good 10 to 15 degrees milder than average through the weekend assure January will end up milder than average in the Twin Cities and most (all?) of Minnesota. The mid-month Arctic outbreak made a valiant effort, but the El Nino Vulcans win over Arctic King Boreas so far this winter.

• +10.5 degrees vs. average in December at MSP Airport

• Warmest December in modern record for Minnesota

• +2 degrees vs. average - early estimate for Minnesota temps in January

The January temperature map for Minnesota won't look this red when it comes out next week. Here's the map from the warmest December in the modern record in Minnesota.

Shallow frost depth

This may be close to a record for the shallowest frost layer in late January in the Twin Cities. Check out at the temperature data from the sod plot in at the University of Minnesota's St. Paul campus. The frost depth is less than 7", and it's often 3 to 4 feet deep this time of year.

Big snow next week?

Let the snow forecasting games begin.

I've been posting all week and talking on my MPR weather chats about the chances for significant snow next Tuesday and Wednesday. First NOAA's GFS model tracked a strong low through Iowa with heavy snow into the Twin Cities.

Then last night's Euro run jumped on board and went all in on heavy metro snow nest Tuesday and Wednesday. Wednesday afternoons Euro run continued to crank out heavy snow potential with .84" liquid. You can do the math at 10:1 snow to rain.

The latest GFS run pushed the storm track further south, putting the heaviest snow band south toward Ames, Decorah, Rochester, and La Crosse with the Twin Cities hanging on the northern edge.

The storm tracks and snowfall outputs will probably flip-flop another 3-4 times before the storm arrives next week. It's looking more likely though by the day somebody will get a pile of snow in southern Minnesota, Iowa and Wisconsin. We're overdue. The only question at this point seems to be where the heavy snow band will lay out.

At this point the forecast for next week comes with the following warning label.

For entertainment purposes only.

Stay tuned.