Friday slop storm, then coldest air of winter so far

Make up your mind Old Man Winter.

You may need both the umbrella and the shovel Friday across Minnesota. A sloppy wintry mix of rain, drizzle, ice and snow greets us on final approach to another winter weekend. The first true Arctic front blows through late Friday night with the season's coldest air mass so far in tow.

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Wintry mix

Low pressure rides northeast toward Chicago and Milwaukee on Friday. The system throws a rain-snow shield across the Upper Midwest. Temperatures hover a couple degrees either side of freezing Friday. That means the now familiar mix of rain, drizzle, ice and snow. I'll see your sleet, and raise you some graupel?

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NOAA

I'm a little wary that some of the models may have underestimated the potential for a wet, sloppy March-like snowfall event across Minnesota. This system is what we call "temperature critical" in the lowest mile of the atmosphere. If the slight warm layer above freezing holds, the notion of mostly mixed precip and 1" to 2" of snow holds.

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But if the air column cools even slightly, we could be watching a small pile of heavy wet snow on the lawn. Right now I'm leaning toward a general range of 1" to 3" snowfall by late Friday night.

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Iowa State University

Snowfall totals will have to be watched for updates Friday if temps in the lowest mile of the atmosphere are even 1 or 2 degrees colder. Side roads may again get slick into early Friday morning. With temp hovering just above freezing at ground level Friday afternoon, main roads should be mostly wet.

This winter the safe bet has been on the low side of snow totals. Stay tuned.

Tundra Bowl tracker

Take pictures. You can tell the grandkids you were at that game.

The latest read on Sunday's kickoff temperatures range between -2 degrees for the ECMWF (Euro) and +2 degrees from NOAA GFS.  Those numbers could change a little by Sunday, but either way it's going to be a test of endurance Sunday at the Bank.

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Weatherspark - ECMWF data

My forecast from a few days ago still seems reasonable. This could end up in the top 10 coldest games in NFL history.

Heading to the game Sunday? A few words of wisdom from your weather dad. Yes, we're Minnesotans. Yes, were winter tough. Yes, it's football. And no, your skin doesn't care if you think your tough. It only takes a few minutes to get a (serious) case of frostbite at these temperatures. The UM hospital is close by if you or somebody you know needs medical assistance.

Here's the longer range forecast into next week. Expect a few more sub-zero nights ahead. Do they still have those plug-in engine block heaters?

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Weatherspark - ECMWF data

Warmest and wettest December on record

It's unusual for Minnesota and the Midwest to have both a warmest and wettest month on record. But that's exactly what happened in December. The forecast for a mild December was spot on. The extra moisture? A function of unusually persistent warm Gulf of Mexico breezes streaming north last month. Throw in the background hum of milder winters thanks to climate change, and you've got a December to remember weather event in the Midwest.

More context from the Midwest Regional Climate Center.

In a year when many state records were broken, 2015 ended with historically warm temperatures and well above-normal precipitation, leading to the warmest and wettest December on record for the Midwest, according to the Midwestern Regional Climate Center (MRCC) at the Illinois State Water Survey (ISWS).

The Midwest’s preliminary average December 2015 temperature was 36.7 degrees F, which was 10.7 degrees above normal. The previous record was 34.1 degrees in 1923. The record warmth was widespread across the Midwest as all nine states in the MRCC region experienced their warmest December on record.

Kentucky, Michigan, Ohio and Wisconsin broke their previous records by more than 3 degrees. Record wet conditions also occurred as the Midwest received a preliminary total of 5.01 inches of precipitation in December 2015. The previous record was 4.42 inches in 1982.

Dark too: Cloudiest December in 53 years

If you felt like we lived in caves in December it's not your imagination. December 2015 was one of the cloudiest months on record. U of M professor and MPR colleague Dr. Mark Seeley elaborates on the December sunshine drought in this week's Weather Talk post. As always you can hear more perspective from mark on MPR News in the 6 a.m. hour during MPR's Morning Edition. Here's an exclusive early preview for Updraft readers.

Topic: Lowest December Sunshine

The University of Minnesota St. Paul Campus Climate Observatory has measured daily solar radiation since 1962.  That is a record of the total energy from the sun that reaches the Earth's surface here in St Paul.  The daily amount correlated highly to the elevation angle of the sun, day length, cloudiness and turbidity of the atmosphere (smoke, haze, etc).  It is worth noting that last month brought the least amount of solar radiation for any December measured since 1962, breaking the record low value from last year. This is not instrument error or degradation.  The instruments have been checked by Dave Ruschy.  So if your perception was that of a very cloudy December just past, these measurements sure substantiate it!

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Measured solar radiation in St. Paul. University of Minnesota

Climate Cast: California methane leak prompts state of emergency

What happens when a natural gas pipeline 8,700 feet underground ruptures? Months of the potent greenhouse gas methane being pumped into the atmosphere directly over Los Angeles. Why are climate watchers so concerned? Methane is at least 40 times more potent than CO2 as a greenhouse gas.

I explored the context of what's believed to be the largest human-caused methane leak ever in depth with Dr. Jeff Chanton from Florida State University on Thursday's Climate Cast. His perspective is worth a listen.

More on the leak and the state of emergency from The Daily Mail.

The Environmental Defense Fund (EDF), who released the footage showing the plume of gas in December, described it 'one of the biggest leaks we've ever seen reported' and 'absolutely uncontained'. 

Methane, the main ingredient in natural gas, can be flammable under high pressures and inflict immediate climate damage.

'Events of this size are rare, but major leakage across the oil and gas supply chain is not. There are plenty of mini -Aliso Canyons that add up to a big climate problem – not just in California, but across the country,' said Tim O'Connor, director of Environmental Defense Fund's California oil and gas program. 

The near-term climate damage of the leak is estimated to be the same as driving seven million cars a year, or equal to all of the annual pollution from California's oil refineries combined.

Nationally, the problem of industrial methane pollution is estimated to be over 7 million tons per year.

Locals are starting to file lawsuits against SoCal Gas, and more than 2,000 families have been relocated.

SoCal Gas said that plugging the leak, could take another two months.

The leak currently accounts for a quarter of the state's entire methane emissions.

2015 warmest globally and 2nd warmest on record for U.S. 

Next week the official numbers from multiple data sets will confirm that 2015 was the warmest year on record globally.

NOAA confirmed today that 2015 was the 2nd warmest on record in the U.S..

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NOAA

More from Climate Central.

That second-place finish comes as both NOAA and NASA are expected to announce that the year was the hottest on record globally. While that record heat was helped in part by one of the strongest El Ninos on record, it was mainly due to the contributions of man-made global warming, scientists have said.

The U.S. temperature ranking “is emblematic of what will ultimately be the warmest year for the globe,” Deke Arndt, chief of NOAA Climate Monitoring Branch, said during a press conference.

By the end of November, the U.S. was having its fifth-hottest year to date, but December turned out not only to be record warm, but incredibly so. It was 6 degrees F (3 degrees C) above the 20th century average and bested the previous record holder (December 1939) by nearly a full degree. That surge of heat bumped the year as a whole up to the No. 2 slot in records going back to 1895, with a temperature that was 2.4 degrees F (1.3 degrees C) above the 20th century average. The only year warmer was 2012, by 0.9 degrees F (0.5 degrees C).

Billion dollar weather disasters in 2015

Some context from NOAA on major and costly billion dollar weather events in 2015.

In 2015, there were 10 weather and climate disaster events with losses exceeding $1 billion each across the United States. These events included a drought event, 2 flooding events, 5 severe storm events, a wildfire event, and a winter storm event. Overall, these events resulted in the deaths of 155 people and had significant economic effects on the areas impacted. The 1980–2015 annual average is 5.2 events (CPI-adjusted); the annual average for the most recent 5 years (2011–2015) is 10.8 events (CPI-adjusted). Further cost figures on individual events in 2015 will be updated when data are finalized.

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NOAA