Warm Wednesday, high uncertainty on Sunday snow chances

Welcome to the world of weather forecasting.

Picture a room full of financial advisers. The 10 people in the room all are experts in various economic fields. Each one gives you their best forecast for where the markets will be in a few weeks. Thing is, they all have varied answers. Is one right? Is consensus the best way to reach the right outcome?

Now imagine each adviser is a numerical weather forecast model. You get the picture.

The suite of forecast models meteorologists use are literally still all over the map for the potential location and intensity of snowfall and even precipitation type (rain/snow) Sunday. We call this a "high degree of uncertainty" in the weather forecast biz. Sunday potential weathermaker is still thousands of miles away spinning through the north Pacific.

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The Twin Cities National Weather Service does a nice job of illustrating the uncertainty with Sunday's system.

Fellow weather pros and geeks, feel free to chime in on your thoughts on Sunday's snow potential. A Minnesota mess or near miss?

Stay tuned.

Warm Wednesday

In the shorter term the forecast picture is clear. Mild southerly breezes blow again today. Mixed sunshine should help boost temperatures into the mid, even upper 40s this afternoon across Minnesota. 60s as close as Omaha and 70 in Kansas on Dec. 9?

Somebody pinch me and remind me it is December.

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NOAA

To the maps. Our series of Pacific fronts continues. The next Pacific low pressure system brings chances for light rain and snow showers Thursday.

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NOAA

Her's the breakdown of the next week according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Global Forecast System model. Can we throw a few more possible precipitation types in the weekend forecast please?

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Weatherspark

El Nino: Not a storm

There's plenty of talk about El Nino these days. Just to be clear, El Nino refers to the warm phase of tropical Pacific Ocean waters that happens every two to five years on average.

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NOAA

It's not a storm in California, it's not a mild winter wind in Minnesota. Those can be effects of a mature El Nino.

Here's a nice refresher on just what El Nino is, and isn't from Jan Null at Golden Gate Weather.

The Misconceptions of El Niño

by Jan Null, CCM

Updated December 2015

Arguably the strongest El Niño since at least 1950 is ongoing in the tropical Pacific with the greatest monthly Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly (SSTA) recorded.

But there are still plenty of questions about how it will impact this winter's weather across the United States. And clouding the picture even more is the hype wrapped in the many myths, misconceptions and misinformation about what El Niño is and its impacts.

#1. El Niño will soon come to California

No -- El Niño never comes to North America. Rather, it is a phenomenon that periodically occurs in the warm equatorial waters of the Pacific Ocean.

Normally the trade winds along the equator push the warmest waters into the western portions of the Pacific. But on an irregular basis of typically two to seven years, the trades slacken, or sometimes even reverse direction, and warmer-than-normal water accumulates along the equator in the central and eastern Pacific.

This warming is called El Niño, referring to the “Christ child'' because its effects are greatest in the winter and often disrupt fishing along the South American coast around Christmas. (The converse case, La Niña, is when the waters of the eastern Pacific are cooler than normal.)

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NOAA