System winds down, 40 again by Saturday

Well that was an interesting weather system.

Our first significant winter storm delivered perfectly on heavy snowfall projections for southwest Minnesota where 9" fell in Lake Benton and 8.6" blanketed Redwood Falls.

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Snow depth analysis Tuesday morning. NOAA

The system threw Twin Cities commuters (and meteorologists) a few curve balls.

The first was the early arrival of an icy wintry mix early Monday morning that messed up the commute. The second was the location and intensity of snowfall in the Twin Cities metro area. Officially 3.9" fell at MSP Airport with 5.5" on the higher end in Mounds View. That's about 2 to 3 inches lower than expected, and heavier snow favored the eastern metro instead of the west metro as most models predicted. It's a good reminder that every winter storm is unique.

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The reality of the effects and impact of the system were clear. Nightmare commutes and a sobering tweet from the Minnesota Sate Patrol reminds us again that impact is more important than inches in winter storms.

That's some interesting perspective on how we approach winter storms in Minnesota. A tornado or severe thunderstorm in summer that produced 1 fatality, injured 37 and damaged 391 cars would probably lead your local newscast for days. In winter it's another blip on the news screen.

I get why we as meteorologists sometimes get accused of "hyping" winter storms. This storm's impacts reminds us why they're worthy of extra attention.

Senator Amy Klobuchar is an Updraft reader? Who knew?

System winds down

As the system shifts north, the bulk of significant snow favors northern and western Minnesota today. Here's the snapshot from the Duluth NWS.

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Lake effect rain?

This might be a sign of our upside down winter so far. Instead of lake effect snow, winds blowing off a still realtively warm Lake Superior in Duluth are producing what looks to me like lake effect rain at Duluth harbor. Further inladn ,it;s all snow at the Dultuh Airport at the top of the hill away from the lake.

Here's a closer look at water temperatures, still running in the 40s near Duluth.

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NOAA

The low pressure system gradually 'fills' (weakens) over Minnesota today. The lack of cold Arctic air behind the system is one big reason this system didn't spin up into a bigger more powerful winter storm. Scattered snow showers and mixed drizzle rotate around the system today as it gradually slides northeast. Milder westerly Pacific breezes return. Another warm front in our unusually mild slow motion slide into the season formerly known as winter.

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NOAA

Our mild breezes now linger into December later this week. Take a look at the forecast high temperature map for Saturday. Note the lack of blue hues and absence of even a hint of Arctic air. 41 degrees in Grand Forks on December 5th?

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NOAA

Temperatures return to the 40 degree mark in the Twin Cities as we approach the weekend. What snow fell on your yard does a slow motion disappearing act this week.

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Weatherspark - European Model data

Tale of two Novembers

This looks like it went down as the 2nd warmest meteorological fall on record in Minnesota. And this November? You're reading that right below, 16 degrees warmer than last November in the Twin Cities and the 4th warmest on record.

Happy 'Meteorological Winter'

You're right. Meteorologists do march to the beat of a different drummer. For record keeping it's much easier to use the 3 coldest months (Dec-Feb) of the year as what we call 'meteorological winter.'

This winters seasonal forecast is being driven by large part by the near record warmth of El Nino in the tropical Pacific. The past 3 weeks have produced record water temperatures in the tropical pacific. Last week's numbers dipped slightly, which could be a blip, or a sign that El Nino has reached peak intensity.

The longer range signals continue to favor a mild bias well into December.

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NOAA

NOAA's CFSv2 climate forecasting system continues the trend of warmth into January.

It's starting too look increasingly like this could be the year without a 'real' winter in Minnesota.

Stay tuned.