Mild now, growing odds for a white Christmas?

Our extended autumnal after-party may soon be over.

Mild air persists over the Upper Midwest this week. But changes in the medium range weather maps suggest a colder, and snowier weather pattern ahead starting next week. The other weather shoe is flying through mid air, and may be about to drop with a soft snowy thud in the next two weeks.

First the short term.

Mild Pacific flow continues this week. A mini low pressure system zips overhead today with more clouds and a few spotty sprinkles. Our Pacific front parade continues into Friday as the next low drags another warm front our way, and more scattered (light) rain and snow showers across Minnesota Thursday.

The maps.

Here's the more detailed breakdown on the meteogram from Weatherspark. Our unseasonably mild November hangover continues into Thursday. We may set some record warm minimum temperatures Thursday morning across Minnesota.

I don't expect any major problems through Saturday. Sunday's snow chance could be a preview of coming attractions.

35 percent lower heating bills

Snow lovers and ice fisher folk are getting a little restless with the incredible warmth. But you may have noticed that furnace is kicking in a lot less so far this fall-winter. I ran some numbers through Monday, and so far our heating bills are about 35 percent lower than last year.

• +10.6 degrees - December temps vs. average at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport through Dec. 7

• 1,388 heating degree days (HDD) at MSP Airport so far this heating season

• 2,111 HDD by this date last year.

• 35 percent fewer HDD this year compared to 2014

• 27 percent fewer HDD compared to average (1,908)

Thank you El Nino.

More active snowfall pattern on the horizon?

The longer range maps are starting to look significantly more "interesting."

Both the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and NOAA's Global Forecast System are hinting at a potential Upper Midwest snow system Sunday into Monday.

The GFS is also cranking out two more possible snow shots in the next two weeks. Temperatures still look to be at or above seasonal norms, but it should be cold enough for snow (to stick) starting next week.

Here's a quick look at Sunday's possible system. The early track trends seem to favor an eastward path that might put the heaviest snows in Wisconsin, but it will bear watching.

I won't even bother to put the early model snowfall projections out yet. They're probably still fiction at this point. Suffice to say there is a chance for accumulating snow across the Upper Midwest Sunday, and we'll need to watch this one.

Cold enough for snow, and frozen lakes?

Temperature trends look colder for the last two weeks of December. I still don't see any prolonged Arctic invasions, but it should start feeling a lot more like the season formerly know as winter around here by next week.

We may even start seeing some negative numbers on the weather maps as we approach Christmas. That should be enough to keep nay snow that does fall in place.

Remember, temperature trends are more reliable that actual values or daily snow chances in these longer range outlooks.

My odds for a white Christmas just went north of 80 percent. And it could be very white.

Stay tuned.