Major winter storm: Snowy travel through Tuesday

Here it comes Minnesota.

Our (well advertised) major winter storm is still on track to deliver moderate to heavy snowfall tonight and Tuesday across the Upper Midwest. Snow is working northward from Iowa into Minnesota today as expected. Get your errands done by 3 p.m. in the metro today if possible.

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Employers may want to consider letting staff out a bit early today. Plan on a difficult commute Tuesday morning.

Winter is finally here to stay Minnesota.

Storm headlines

  • Winter storm warnings include the Twin Cities metro and all of southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin.

  • The leading edge of snow reaches the Twin Cities between about 4 p.m. and 7 p.m. this evening.

  • Heavy snowfall rates of 1 inch-plus per hour likely tonight.

  • Roads quickly become slick this evening. Tuesday morning rush hour slick and slow.

  • Overnight and early morning model runs have tightened a bit from the extreme variations we saw Sunday.

  • 5- to 10-inch snowfall range likely for the Twin Cities metro by Tuesday evening.

  • The heaviest snow band of 6 to 12 inches-plus should favor an Albert Lea-Rochester-Winona-Eau Claire zone.

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Twin Cities NWS

Impressive storm

This is the same storm system that pummeled the southern states with flooding rains and raked the Dallas area with a family of tornadoes over the holiday weekend. At least 43 are dead so far as a result of flooding and tornadoes with this system.

Here's a big picture, bird's-eye look at the inbound storm as it spins north toward the Upper Midwest. Note the classic comma-shaped storm center east of Tulsa this morning moving north.

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NOAA via College of DuPage

Still on track

Meteorologists pay close attention to the precise low pressure track at the surface. This Gulf storm has gulped down plenty of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico.The track toward Milwaukee is favorable to lay out the heaviest snow zone across southeast Minnesota and western Wisconsin. A broader snow shield lays out across Minnesota.

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NOAA

Timing is everything

One thing that has been consistent about this system? The timing of snowfall.

Watch the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's North American Mesoscale Forecast System 4 km resolution model push the leading edge of snow into the metro between 4 p.m. and 6 p.m. today. We could see two heavy waves with this system.

One tonight and another Tuesday morning, just in time for rush hour. How special.

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NOAA's NAM 4km simulated radar reflectivity.

Attempted model consensus?

As the forecast model snowfall spread grew Sunday I grew another 250 gray hairs. There has been some tightening overnight and early today. The NOAA North American Mesoscale Forecast System has been the outlier, with heaviest snowfall totals for the metro.

NOAA's Global Forecast System and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts have been steadier, with a 5- to 10-inch range seeming like the most likely metro snowfall range. This morning's 12Z NAM run came more in line with the European and GFS models.

Here's this morning's 12Z NOAA NAM 4 km precip output. The notion of between half to an inch of liquid for the Twin Cities with the heaviest snow zone favoring southeast Minnesota and western Wisconsin. That's a little closer to the Euro and GFS totals.

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NOAA NAM 4 km precipitation output.

Here's NOAA's 12Z NAM run snowfall output from this morning. The heavy snow zone shifts from the metro to southeast Minnesota. This solution is more in line with the GFS and European models.

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NAM snowfall: 8.5" for MSP?

Overall I still favor a snowfall range of 5  to 10 inches in the Twin Cities by Tuesday evening, with the heaviest snowfall zone of 6 to 12 inches southeast.

The Twin Cities National Weather Service does a nice job of laying out the idea of heaviest snow southeast, with less as you move northwest.

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Windy too: Blowing and drifting

One added element of this system? Wind gusts from 20 to 30 mph from the metro southeast tonight will whip up some impressive snow drifts in open areas. Expect reduced visibility and blowing snow across roads.

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NOAA

Bottom Line: Expect heavy snow tonight and part of Tuesday. Travel tonight and Tuesday will be difficult to dangerous. Gusty winds will cause blowing and drifting snow in open areas. This will be the biggest storm so far this winter season for most of southern Minnesota, and could be the biggest in almost two years.

Chilly New Year's

The rest of the week looks quiet, but chilly.

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Weatherspark - ECMWF output