90 percent odds of mild bias through Dec. 18?
And the mild weather hits just keep on comin'.
The latest model runs continue to support the notion of unseasonable warmth overall into mid December, and perhaps beyond.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center is reading the El Nino flavored tea leaves, and stamping 80 percent to 90 percent chances of warmer than average temps overall in Minnesota and the Great Lakes through Dec. 16.
Going out even further on the weather becomes climate forecasting limb, NOAA favors a 70 percent chance for overall warmth into Christmas Day in the three-week experimental temperature outlook.
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The obvious question of a white Christmas hangs in the balance.
If you read this space at all you know I am inclined to agree. I've been on the El Nino rules bandwagon for months now. So far the winter forecast is tracking right on schedule.
I also think we will see occasional bracing stabs of colder air surging south this winter, especially in January and February. I just don't think the predominant far north displacement of the jet stream pattern this year will produce enough intense Arctic outbreaks to overcome long periods of unseasonable warmth.
One well respected seasonal climate forecaster who seems to have come around to accepting the magnitude of this El Nino winter is Judah Cohen. Here's an excerpt from his updated perspective from his latest blog post Tuesday.
However for now the weather models do not predict an increase in energy transfer and instead are predicting a very strong polar vortex for the first half of December.
If the energy transfer is not sufficiently strong over the next month or so to weaken the polar vortex, then the winter AO is likely to average positive in the mean and a mild weather pattern will dominate the mid-latitude continents this upcoming winter. This is especially true across North America where an El Niño driven southern Jet Stream will flood North America with mild Pacific air.
Here is Cohen's latest projection for winter temperatures. The sheer magnitude of this record El Nino seems to be overwhelming the Siberian snow cover theory this winter.
In the shorter term get ready for a week of November like mildness as we head toward mid-December.
And stay off the thin ice, as the late season boaters venture out on still open lakes...in December.