Snowy mix winds down Tuesday
Could this be a trend in our likely warmer than average El Niño-fueled winter?
Our first significant winter storm ranges from icy to snow-covered to just plain sloppy depending on where you live in Minnesota. A fairly "warm" winter-type low pressure system spinning into the Upper Midwest continues to produce sporadic snow bursts and mixed wintry precipitation overnight into Tuesday.
Winter storm warnings remain in effect for southwest Minnesota
Winter weather advisories from the Twin Cities north
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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
336 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015
...SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...REACHING WISCONSIN ON TUESDAY. SNOW WILL SPREAD NORTH OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO WESTERN
WISCONSIN TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...MAKING FOR A LONG DURATION EVENT. A FEW BREAKS IN THE PRECIPITATION MAY OCCUR OVER THAT TIME PERIOD. TOTAL SNOWFALL IN EXCESS OF 8 INCHES IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA... WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS NEAR 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM GLENWOOD TO LITCHFIELD TO FARIBAULT TO ALBERT LEA.
FOR CENTRAL INTO EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA... TOTALS OF 5 TO 9 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. IN ADDITION...ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...TOTALS FROM 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. FOR THESE AREAS...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT.
Here's an impressive view of the wider system from the GOES infrared satellite via College of DuPage.
The heaviest snowfall zone still favors southwest Minnesota, where snowfall totals between 4 and 6 inches were already down as of late Monday afternoon in Worthington, Sioux Falls, Luverne and Pipestone.
Luverne [Rock Co, MN] PUBLIC reports SNOW of 6.30 INCH at 4:15 PM CST --
2 NNW Sioux Falls [Minnehaha Co, SD] OFFICIAL NWS OBS reports SNOW of 6.30 INCHat 4:00 PM CST --
Worthington [Nobles Co, MN] CO-OP OBSERVERreports SNOW of 5.80 INCH at 4:00 PM CST --
Madison [Lake Co, SD] EMERGENCY MNGRreports SNOW of 4.00 INCH at 4:00 PM CST --
Pipestone [Pipestone Co, MN] PUBLIC reports SNOW of 5.90 INCH at 3:59 PM CST --
The Twin Cities caught a break for most of afternoon rush hour. Lighter snowfall rates and temperatures above the freezing mark produced mostly wet roads. That's a big improvement over wave #1 Monday morning when temperatures hovered below freezing.
Lack of Arctic air
One notable feature of our first winter storm is the lack of Arctic air behind the system. Arctic air is often a necessary ingredient to spin up a winter storm. The milder air behind this system is one limiting factor of what could be a much more potent and dangerous system. Temperatures behind a storm at or above freezing are much warmer than we might expect for the first day of December.
The mild December I've been talking about for weeks now appears ready to kick in later this week. Temperatures near 40 degrees, and melting snow return later this week.
Take it easy with the snow, or just wait for it to melt.
The longer range outlooks still paint a red bull's eye over most of the United States for next week, meaning above normal temperatures.
NOAA's experimental three-week temperature outlook favors warm air overall across the northern tier.
Touch and go for a white Christmas this year? Bet on it.