Snowy mix winds down Tuesday

Could this be a trend in our likely warmer than average El Niño-fueled winter?

Our first significant winter storm ranges from icy to snow-covered to just plain sloppy depending on where you live in Minnesota. A fairly "warm" winter-type low pressure system spinning into the Upper Midwest continues to produce sporadic snow bursts and mixed wintry precipitation overnight into Tuesday.

1130 5allfcsts_loop_ndfd (1)
NOAA

  • Winter storm warnings remain in effect for southwest Minnesota

  • Winter weather advisories from the Twin Cities north

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1130 warn
Twin Cities NWS

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

336 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015

...SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...

A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...REACHING WISCONSIN ON TUESDAY. SNOW WILL SPREAD NORTH OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO WESTERN

WISCONSIN TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...MAKING FOR A LONG DURATION EVENT. A FEW BREAKS IN THE PRECIPITATION MAY OCCUR OVER THAT TIME PERIOD. TOTAL SNOWFALL IN EXCESS OF 8 INCHES IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA... WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS NEAR 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM GLENWOOD TO LITCHFIELD TO FARIBAULT TO ALBERT LEA.

FOR CENTRAL INTO EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA... TOTALS OF 5 TO 9 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. IN ADDITION...ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...TOTALS FROM 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. FOR THESE AREAS...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT.

Here's an impressive view of the wider system from the GOES infrared satellite via College of DuPage.

1130 ir
NOAA via College of Dupage

The heaviest snowfall zone still favors southwest Minnesota, where snowfall totals between 4 and 6 inches were already down as of late Monday afternoon in Worthington, Sioux Falls, Luverne and Pipestone.

The Twin Cities caught a break for most of afternoon rush hour. Lighter snowfall rates and temperatures above the freezing mark produced mostly wet roads. That's a big improvement over wave #1 Monday morning when temperatures hovered below freezing.

1130 temps
NOAA

 

Lack of Arctic air

One notable feature of our first winter storm is the lack of Arctic air behind the system. Arctic air is often a necessary ingredient to spin up a winter storm. The milder air behind this system is one limiting factor of what could be a much more potent and dangerous system. Temperatures behind a storm at or above freezing are much warmer than we might expect for the first day of December.

1130 MaxT2_uppermissvly (1)
NOAA

The mild December I've been talking about for weeks now appears ready to kick in later this week. Temperatures near 40 degrees, and melting snow return later this week.

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Weatherspark

Take it easy with the snow, or just wait for it to melt.

The longer range outlooks still paint a red bull's eye over most of the United States for next week, meaning above normal temperatures.

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NOAA

NOAA's experimental three-week temperature outlook favors warm air overall across the northern tier.

1130 WK34temp
NOAA

Touch and go for a white Christmas this year? Bet on it.