November thunderstorms and hail, rain and wind overnight

Our Veterans Day storm of 2015 arrived on schedule.

The unusually warm November system greeted the Twin Cities and southern Minnesota with more typical late summer weather fare. Lightning, thunder, downpours and hail in November?

Welcome to the new normal in Minnesota's ever-changing weather tapestry.

Wednesday evening's thunderstorms are unusual for November 11. Numerous reports of small hail poured into at the Huttner Weather Lab.

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Phase 1 of our storm featured thunderstorms with downpours, small hail and flashes of lightning. Phase 2 brings more wind and rain overnight into early Thursday. The heaviest rain zone of 1 to 2 inches still looks to lay out from southern Minnesota clipping the southeast metro into western Wisconsin. High wind warnings and wind advisories kick in overnight with gusts to 45 mph around the Twin Cities to as high as 60 mph south of the Minnesota River.

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INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...REDWOOD FALLS...NEW ULM...ST. JAMES...MANKATO...FAIRMONT...BLUE EARTH

215 PM CST WED NOV 11 2015

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY...

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY...

* TIMING...9 PM TONIGHT TO 6 PM THURSDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 11 PM AND 4 AM TONIGHT.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST WIND SUSTAINED 35 TO 40 WITH GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH TONIGHT. NORTHWEST WIND SUSTAINED 30 TO 35 WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH THURSDAY.

* IMPACTS...LOOSE OBJECTS WILL BE EASILY BLOWN ABOUT BY THE STRONG WINDS AND SOME LIGHT STRUCTURAL DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE. SOME COMMERCIAL POWER INTERRUPTION WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DUE TO DOWNED POWER LINES.

Deep low races east

Here's the windy rainy weather culprit. The deep low pressure system races rapidly northeast through the Great Lakes Thursday. Colder winds and a trough behind the system bring some snow to the northeast half of Minnesota Thursday. High pressure builds in for a quieter Friday. Our next November warm front pushes east through the Dakotas for yet another weekend warming trend.

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NOAA

Midwest severe outbreak

As forecast, the advancing squall line across Iowa has produced significant severe weather outbreak. Numerous tornado reports are rolling in, and there are multiple reports of wind damage.

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One tornado was sighted by controllers at the Des Moines International Airport. Here are some selected storm reports from Iowa.

  • DES Moines INT Airport ( [Polk Co, IA] TRAINED SPOTTER reports TORNADO at 3:30 PM CST -- DAMAGE TO NATIONAL GUARD TRAILERS AT THE AIRPORT AND TRAILERS AT A BUILDING ACROSS THE STREET. TOWERS CONTROLLERS REPORTED SEEING THE FUNNEL CLOUD WITH A CIRCULATION ON THE GROUND.

  • 1 NNE DES Moines INT AIR [Polk Co, IA] TRAINED SPOTTER reports TORNADO at 3:30 PM CST -- TREES TOPPED AND WINDOWS BLOWN OUT OF HOMES AND A GLASS FACTORY NEAR THE AIRPORT. DAMAGE NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF SW 27TH AND STANTON.

  • 1 NNW Grand River [Decatur Co, IA] EMERGENCY MNGR reports TORNADO at 2:42 PM CST -- EMERGENCY MANAGER FROM MISSOURI REPORTED ABOUT 2 MILE IN LENGTH DAMAGE PATH ON THE NORTH SIDE OF GRAND RIVER. PATH 50 YARDS WIDE. MEDIUM SIZED TREES DOWN. VEGETATION EMBEDDED IN FENCE AND TREE LINES.

  • Martelle [Jones Co, IA] FIRE DEPT/RESCUEreports TSTM WND GST of E75 MPH at 5:37 PM CST --

  • 5 E Memphis [Scotland Co, MO] LAW ENFORCEMENT reports TSTM WND DMG at 4:35 PM CST -- DAMAGE PATH ABOUT 1 MILE LONG AND 75 YD WIDE. 2 TO 3 MACHINE SHEDS DESTROYED. 30 POWER POLES SNAPPED. 2 FULL GRAIN BINS DAMAGED. ROUND HAY BALES LIFTED OVER FENCE. TIME ESTIMATED.

Snow on the backside

As cold air funnels in behind the system, a follow on low pressure trough spins southeast Thursday bringing some snow to northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.

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November chill returns briefly

Cold fronts sailing south from Canada in this unusually balmy fall are really just "average" fronts. Thursday's cold air intrusion fits the bill, returning temperatures to near November averages Thursday and Friday. Typical November blue returns to the weather maps for about 48 hours.

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NOAA

Temperatures approach the freezing mark again across Minnesota both Friday and Saturday mornings.

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NOAA

Another mild weekend ahead

This fall Pacific air masses follow our storms, instead of more typical Yukon November fronts. That means more mild breezes this weekend. Temperatures in the mid and upper 50s are a good 10 to 15 degrees warmer than average. Yes, your local bank thermometer may flash 60 degrees again by Sunday afternoon.

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Weatherspark - Euro data

Cold Turkey?

It's still (too) early to be credibly specific about Thanksgiving forecast two weeks out. That said, longer range trends hint at a more significant cold front Thanksgiving week.

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NOAA via IPS Meteostar

Stay tuned.