November nice: Wednesday soaker, another mild weekend

We've won the weather lottery in Minnesota this year.

A beautiful and early spring. The third "most glorious" summer on record. The best growing season in memory with a record setting bumper crop. A long glorious fall.

Kansas City, with lakes. And lefse.

Our Minnesota weather and sports psyche knows it's all too good to be true. The other "weather shoe" is up there somewhere ready to land with a white sloppy thud. The Gophers will lose in the last second. The Vikings will lose another Super Bowl. The frozen tundra will return any minute.

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Just not this week.

+11.2 degrees - November temps vs. average at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport through Sunday

We enjoy two more mild October-like days before our next weather system drives rain northeast toward Minnesota. The maps show mild southerly breezes today and Tuesday, then rain spreads north as low pressure deepens in Kansas Wednesday morning.

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NOAA

The track of our inbound low favors a Kansas City-Des Moines-La Crosse-Green Bay route Wednesday. If it were cold enough, that would be an excellent track for heavy snow across the southeast half of Minnesota.

Not this week.

Temps about a mile above ground in the critical layers hold above freezing Wednesday. The result? A cold rainy Wednesday with temperatures in the 40s.

Here's a more detailed breakdown of the week ahead.

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Weatherspark - NOAA GFS model data

We could see a few  renegade November flakes on the backside of the system as it pulls out early Friday morning, but don't hold your breath for any metro accumulation. A few snow showers graze northern half of Minnesota in the system's wake Friday.

1109 msp2

Another mild weekend ahead?

Our timing has been impeccable when comes to weekend weather since late August. Chalk up another winner next weekend. High pressure, sunshine and mild southerly breezes return. We start frosty again on Saturday morning. I have a hunch the forecast high temp numbers this weekend are about 5 degrees too conservative.

1009 kky7
Weatherspark - Euro model data

Flowers continue to thrive in the Weather Lab gardens on November 9th. Get out there and enjoy!