Mild Monday, Thanksgiving mess trending east?

The season formerly known as winter has been delayed until further notice.

Thanksgiving week starts on a milder than average note. Wintry mornings give way to early spring like afternoons today and tomorrow. By Wednesday our next weather system slides in with fog and  drizzle, The latest trends suggest the bulk of the system may push the heaviest rain/snow zone east into Wisconsin for Thanksgiving Day.

Black Friday? Chilly enough to make you want to consider the online version of standing in line at Best Buy, but no serious polar plunge appears imminent for Minnesota just yet. The longer range trends hints more mild air may arrive in the first week of December.

Hello Super El Nino.

November 2015 will go down as one of the wettest, with all rain and no measurable snowfall at MSP Airport so far this month. We're also on pace to potentially challenge the top 5 warmest Novembers on record.

• +9.1 degrees - November temps vs. average so far at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport

• 3.99 inches November precipitation (rainfall) so far

• 7th wettest November on record in the Twin Cities

• 0 inches season snowfall so far at MSP Airport

• Nov. 18 - average date of first 1-inch snowfall at MSP Airport

Chart it out and this is what our mild November looks like. The green bar is average. Note how far into warmer than average territory we've spent most of this month.

2015 is also leaning on the warm side for Minnesota. Rainfall is running above average. Here's what your weather year looks like on the graph Twin Cities. Note the sharp transition into spring in early march, and the lingering mild signal in fall.

Twin Cities: A no snow zone

Another day of bare ground and seemingly still green grass greets the Twin Cities metro. Northern Minnesota has spotty snow cover. Sioux Falls, S.D., Ames, Iowa, Janseville, Wis., and Chicago look more like a winter wonderland after the weekend clipper dumped a good swath of 6 to 12 inches of  snow.

Mild for now

Sunshine and relatively mild southerly breezes dominate the first half of Thanksgiving week. Our next low pressure wave moves in Wednesday with increasing clouds, drizzle and fog. It may be cold enough for some icy precipitation in northern Minnesota Wednesday.

Here's a more detailed breakdown of the week ahead.

Thanksgiving Day storm trending east?

The latest model trends suggest an eastward shift in the track of the low pressure system moving into the Midwest Thanksgiving Day. It also favors a more positive tilt in the upper atmosphere. That trend suggests a more progressive and weaker system overall.

The result? The heaviest rains may favor Wisconsin, and snowfall may tend to be lighter on the colder backside of the system. The latest National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration grids favor just chance snowfall probabilities for eastern Minnesota.

We'll have to watch for potential storm track changes in the next 48 hours. But the latest trends suggest Minnesota may get off easier than what some of the more snowpocalyptic solutions the models we're cranking out last week.

Stay tuned.

If by chance we fail to get measurable snow Thanksgiving Day or next Sunday and limp into December without measurable snow, that would be only the 3rd time on record that has occurred. Some perspective from the Twin Cities National Weather Service in this morning's forecast discussion.

IF THE TWIN CITIES FAILS TO GET MEASURABLE SNOW ON THANKSGIVING DAY...WE WILL HAVE A

CHANCE AT GETTING INTO DECEMBER WITHOUT HAVING SEEN ANY MEASURABLE SNOW. GOING BACK TO 1884 /AS FAR BACK AS OFFICIAL SNOWFALL DATA GOES FOR THE TWIN CITIES/...THERE HAVE ONLY BEEN TWO OTHER WINTERS WHERE THE FIRST MEASURABLE SNOW WAS NOT SEEN UNTIL DECEMBER...1928 AND 1963.

El Nino to deliver on predicted December warmth?

If you read my winter forecast, you know I am in the camp of meteorologists that thinks the Super El Nino is the real deal this winter and will ultimately donate our winter temperatures.

We now have a second full week of record warmth in the tropical Pacific ocean. It looks increasingly like this Super El Nino is on track to eclipse the record 1997-98 event.

Historically, record warmth in the tropical Pacific favors milder winters in the Upper Midwest. NOAA's Climate Forecast System is cranking out some eye opening mild temperature projections for December across Canada and the northern U.S.

December temps in excess of +4C or +7F warmer than average across Canada and the Upper Midwest?

Stay tuned.