Mild breezes Wednesday, a few Thanksgiving travel issues

What November?

  • 46 degrees - high temperature at MSP Airport Tuesday (at 2:37 pm)

  • 36 degrees - average high temperature for Nov. 24

  • 9 degrees above average - temperature at MSP Airport so far this month

  • freezing full moon --  rises at 4:57 p.m. Wednesday evening

Traditional Ojibwe moon names are historically beautiful and astute indicators of the seasons in the Upper Midwest.

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But this November's freezing full moon is still in search of a consistent freeze. In the days of my youth, we almost always skated on at least 2 to 4 inches of solid black ice by Thanksgiving week on Carsons Bay of Lake Minnetonka. Not so much any more. A few small ponds are sporting a light and dangerous ice cover now. Lakes of any size are still wide open and windblown.

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Excelsior Bay on Lake Minnetonka.

Mild again Wednesday

Wednesday dawns mild again across Minnesota. Southeast breezes ahead of our inbound low-pressure system will push your local bank thermometer well into the mid- or even upper 40s Wednesday afternoon.

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NOAA

Light rain, drizzle and fog potential develops on the warmer side of the system. As the low crosses east, the cold front changes precipitation to a wintry mix Wednesday night and Thanksgiving Day.

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NOAA

As you can see on the maps, the system is progressive.

The steadily moving system keeps overall precipitation totals down, but it only takes a little light ice or snow to gum up your Thanksgiving Day travel plans. Factor that in, especially if you are heading south along I-35 toward Albert Lea, Hwy. 52 toward Rochester, or east along I-94 into Wisconsin.

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I don't think we'll be shoveling snow in the Twin Cities by Thursday night, but a light slippery coating can't be ruled out, especially in the southeast metro.

Here's a look at expected weather conditions and precipitation types around the region by the time the turkey comes out of the oven Thanksgiving afternoon.

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NOAA

Here's a more detailed breakdown of likely precipitation types and temperatures for the Twin Cities as we head into the holiday weekend.

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Weatherspark - NOAA GFS data

Mild well into December?

After a chilly Black Friday and Small Business Saturday, temperatures will moderate again by Sunday afternoon and should push 40 degrees again in the metro.

In the longer lens, I see a mix of cool days and milder Pacific air gushing in during the first 10 days of December. The longer ranges of the GFS suggest 40s again possible by Dec. 8 through 10.

Will it be touch-and- go for a white Christmas this year across parts of Minnesota? I'm beginning to think so.

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NOAA

Sunset forecasts are here

Want to catch the next great sunset? Check out SunsetWx. This daily forecast of sunset conditions uses a model to predict how vivid sunsets will be. I like the creativity.

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SunsetWx.com

Details from SunsetWx.com.

The model itself takes primary elements into account: Moisture, pressure, and cloud cover. Using our knowledge of the atmosphere, we started with a basic idea of what variables are important, and their relative importance to one another.

We quickly realized that some things were more important than others, and decided on a weighting scheme. After many trial runs and verifications, we weighted moisture the most. Our model ingests data from the high resolution, 4 km NAM, allowing us to account for values at all levels of the troposphere. Because of this, we took into account all levels of the troposphere from the surface, to as high as 200 millibars, and weighted each level accordingly, with the upper-levels having the most weight. Closer to the surface we reduced the weight substantially for moisture as it restricts the sun from refracting copious amount of light. Pressure, as well as the change in pressure over time was the next highest weighted factor as it helps recognize areas where cloud cover may dominate as well as FROPA’s. Finally, we included general cloud cover, to better account for regions where it is overcast, and help the model display it that way.

Climate Generation sending Minnesota education ambassadors to Paris COP21

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From Katie Siegner at Climate Generation.

Hi Paul,

Hope this email finds you well, and that you've been having a good (extended!) fall since we last saw you at our Climate Minnesota convening in Rochester. I wanted to share with you Climate Generation's plans for leading a delegation of 10 U.S. teachers (including 6 from MN) to participate in the COP21 climate talks in Paris from Dec. 5-11. As far as we know, this is the only group of U.S. K-12 educators who will be attending these critical negotiations. Our program, which we're calling Window Into Paris: COP21, was featured by the White House as part of their Climate Education and Literacy Initiative, launched last December, and will connect these 10 Education Ambassadors, their students, and school communities across the U.S. with the real-world climate change education opportunities of the COP21 conference. 

Weatherguide Calendar: A great weather related holiday gift idea

Looking for a unique and beautiful gift for the weather geek in your life? The Freshwater Society Minnesota Weatherguide Calendar continues to be a popular item across Minnesota.

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Freshwater Society

MPR weather is happy to be part of the project with KARE11 meteorologists.

Yes, people still use beautifully crafted hard copy wall and engagement calendars, And no, I don't get a cut of sales proceeds. But I will be signing calendars at  the new Kowalski's Market in Excelsior on the afternoon of Saturday, Dec. 5. More details ahead.