November relapse: Rain, season’s coldest air mass ahead

November is finally in sight this week on the weather maps. But not before what appears to be the warmest first half of November on record.

+10.3 degrees: temperatures vs. average so far in November in Minnesota

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NOAA

Season's coldest air mass arrives Wednesday

The Polar Front Jet Stream is about to buckle and send a few waves of more seasonably cold air masses south into Minnesota. The lead waves in this transition brings rain through Tuesday. Wednesday's cold front will get your attention as the coldest air of the season surges south with sub-freezing temperatures by Thursday and into the weekend.

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Rain and thunder first

Monday's lead wave brought the first soaking to Minnesota. The main low pressure system swirls north Tuesday into Wednesday. More waves of rain and some thunder roll in with the low Tuesday. Wet commutes again.

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NOAA

The system dumps heavy multi-inch rainfall along the Mississippi Valley. Rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches will be common in the Upper Midwest by Wednesday. This is a beneficial soaking before soils freeze up in the next few weeks.

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NOAA

Here's the forecast breakdown for the next few days. The rain shot may end with a few wet snowflakes late Wednesday. The inbound cold front pushes in an air mass featuring several days of mostly sub-freezing temperatures for the first time this fall.

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Weatherspark - NOAA GFS data

Colorado snow

It's getting closer. Our inbound storm is cold enough for heavy snow in Colorado. Blizzard warnings are in effect for the High Plains in and around Denver.

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Texas tornadoes

On the warmer side of the system, tornado watches and warnings. Check out this tornado spawning hook echo southeast of Amarillo.

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Weather Underground

Cold here to stay?

This time it looks like the more seasonable cold may stick for a while at least. Overall next week looks colder than average?

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NOAA

There are some signs of moderation with temperatures in the 40s next week going into Thanksgiving Day. There are also signs of cold air returning Thanksgiving weekend, with a potential snow system to keep an eye on.

Stay tuned.