Crazy warm morning, colder winds kick in today

Our remarkable run of November warmth is getting a little crazy.

  • 59 degrees - temperature at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport at 6:10 a.m. this morning

  • 25 degrees average minimum temperature at MSP on Nov. 18

  • +34 degrees vs. average this morning in the Twin Cities

  • +11.6 degrees - temps vs. average through Nov. 17 at MSP Airport

In a rare overnight surge, temperatures rose in the Twin Cities and eastern Minnesota in the warm sector ahead of advancing low pressure. The temperature at MSP Airport peaked at 59 degrees in the minutes around 6:10 am this morning. Dew point temperatures in the mid 50s are more typical of late August, and likely approach record values for Nov. 18.

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1118 59
NOAA data

The average low for the Twin Cities for Nov. 18? A frigid 25 degrees.

The weather culprit this time? Another unseasonably warm low pressure system with a warm moist conveyor belt pumping unusual warmth and moisture levels north. The College of DuPage infrared satellite loop shows the system.

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NOAA via College of Dupage

Deepening low

This is an unusual track for mid-November low across the Upper Midwest. The rapidly deepening system surges almost straight north int Ontario by tonight. The vacuum cleaner like system spins up increasingly gusty frigid west winds across Minnesota in the storm's wake today and tonight.

A follow on clipper spreads snow across Nebraska and Iowa in the cold air wake Friday.

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NOAA

Iowa snow Friday

Here's a closer look at potential snowfall accumulations Friday. Accumulating snow is possible along the Interstate 90 corridor in southern Minnesota, with higher chances for several inches from Nebraska through Iowa toward Madison.

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NOAA

Season's coldest air mass so far

The passing low pulls down the season's coldest air mass so far in the system's wake. I expect five consecutive mornings well below freezing in the Twin Cities and across most all of Minnesota. In fact, daytime high temps struggle to climb much above freezing Thursday through Sunday. Temps should moderate into the 40s by Monday afternoon.

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Weatherspark - NOAA GFS data

I'm keeping an eye on the potential for a storm spinning up sometime around Thanksgiving. It's still too early to be credible and this could be a model hiccup, but several runs have hinted at a possible low spinning toward Minnesota Thanksgiving day.

Stay tuned.