Balmy again Tuesday, tracking Wednesday’s soaker

Another balmy November day, another puzzle piece in the growing tapestry of an El Niño-modified mild start to the cold season in Minnesota.

  • 62 degrees: high temperature at MSP Airport Monday afternoon

  • 45 degrees: average high for November 9

  • +17 degrees vs. average Monday

  • +11.5 degrees vs. average so far this November at MSP Airport

  • November 18: average date of first 1-inch snowfall at MSP Airport

The Ides of November

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It's true. The days leading up to mid-November have produced some of the most notorious storms in Minnesota history.

The clash of air masses can be intense this time of year. Deepening cold in Canada crashes southward into lingering late summer warmth. The resulting spin-ups produce rapidly developing low pressure storms that deepen and race north along the leading edge of advancing cold air masses.

Forty years ago the notorious Edmund Fitzgerald storm packing hurricane-force gusts took the big ship down in eastern Lake Superior just miles away from safer waters. You may have read my posts on the weather conditions surrounding the sinking of the Fitz. The NWS office in Marquette, Michigan has an excellent look at that tragedy and Great Lakes storms.

NWS marq Fitz

Seventy-five years ago this week the suddenly violent Armistice Day Blizzard swept into Minnesota taking many lives. The Minnesota Climate Working Group lists the Armistice Day Blizzard at No. 2 on the list of all-time significant weather events in Minnesota history, second only to the 1930s Dust Bowl.

NWS armistice day Nov11-1940
Excelsior Boulevard, west of Minneapolis after the Armistice Day Storm Courtesy: Minnesota Historical Society

The Armistice Day Blizzard Ranks #2 on the Minnesota State Climatology Office Top five weather events of the 20th century. Ask any Minnesotan born before 1940 and they can tell you where they were during the Armistice Day Blizzard. The weather was relatively benign the morning of the November 11, 1940. Many people were outdoors, taking advantage of the mild holiday weather. The weather forecast that morning was for colder temperatures and a few flurries. Few people were prepared for what was to come. The storm started with rain, however the rain quickly turned to snow. By the time the blizzard tapered off on the 12th, the Twin Cities had received 16.7 inches of snow, Collegeville 26.6 inches, and 20-foot drifts were reported near Willmar. In all 49 Minnesotans lost their lives in this storm, many of them hunters trapped by the sudden turn of events. The Armistice Day Blizzard was also featured in Mark Seeley's Weather Talk. Also, Minnesota Public Radio has a story on the Armistice Day Blizzard along with a photo slideshow.

Fast forward to the Halloween Mega Storm in 1991. The difference? Advances in meteorology and a reasonably good forecast for extreme snowfall, wind and a major winter storm. We may all want to keep that perspective the next time we hear complaints about too much "weather hype" for an inbound storm. Not that long ago we lived in a world where life-threatening storms would arrive unannounced. We've come a long way.

Next storm arrives Wednesday

Speaking of things that go bump on the weather maps in November, our next storm winds up rapidly (cyclogenesis) as it deepens and heads for the Upper Midwest on Veteran's Day.

1109 5allfcsts_loop_ndfd (1)
NOAA

This one looks warm enough for mostly rain. A big wet smack with a rain shield spreading quickly across Minnesota Wednesday. By the time it's done, a good swath of 1- to 2-inch rainfall totals favoring the southeast third of Minnesota. The metro rides the edge of the heaviest rainfall totals to the south and east.

1109 d3
NOAA: 3-day rainfall output

NOAA's NAM model paints the heavy rain zone into the southeast metro. Note the rapid cutoff in rainfall totals on the system's northwest side. A shift in track of just 40 miles could mean the difference between 2 inches and a trace of rain. Glad I'm not forecasting snowfall totals with this one.

1109 nam2
NOAA via wxcaster.com

Another view on rainfall distribution, and wind gusts from the Twin Cities NWS based on Wednesday's current predicted storm track.

Weekend weather winning streak continues

The winning weekend weather just keeps on coming. After a proper November chill Thursday into Saturday morning, temperatures rebound again this weekend well into the 50s on southerly winds.

1109 kky8
Weatherspark - Euro data

Enjoy Tuesday, then buckle up for Wednesday.