A weekend warm-up is on its way

Friday remained breezy in eastern Minnesota as our recent rainmaker raced off to the east. Most of us enjoyed delightfully sunny skies although clouds over the Arrowhead have been slow to pull away.

Take a moment to enjoy the lovely crescent moon shortly after dark before it sets in the western sky this evening. Just a slim 4 percent will be lit up.

Diminishing winds should allow radiational cooling to drop temperatures into the mid 20s to mid 30s again Saturday morning.

More balmy weather is coming

But any remaining garden flowers that make it through tonight should be good for another week. It will start with a balmy southwesterly flow that will push weekend temperatures well above normal for mid November. A warm front will cross the state and mark a separation between short-sleeve weather in Minnesota and much cooler temperatures in Canada.

Expect highs both Saturday and Sunday to range from around 50 in the Arrowhead to the upper 50s and low 60s from the metro area to southwestern Minnesota. This time of year the average Twin Cities high is just in the low 40s.

The rain shown on the above map from Texas to Iowa is likely to reach southeastern Minnesota Sunday night or Monday morning before crossing the metro area and advancing into Wisconsin. This will mark the beginning of a rather unsettled week of weather from Minnesota to points south and east.

For us, Monday's showers over mainly the southeastern third of Minnesota will be followed by more-widespread showers on Tuesday.

Multiple storm centers are forecast to develop east of the Rocky Mountains and aim for the Great Lakes through mid-week. The heaviest amounts along that track are likely to result from convection well south of Minnesota. Storms already are pouring heavy rain on the Pacific Northwest -- flood warnings have been posted.

Of course, eventually the weather will have to act and feel like an actual November.

By about next Friday, a long range model is forecasting a strong low pressure center to track northeast into Ontario. That would put us on its backside and allow chillier air to blow in from Canada. Temperatures might even get back down to about normal by next weekend, while accompanied by some gusty winds at times.

Note the arcing cold front from Ontario to Virginia to Florida that could bring heavy rain to the mid-Atlantic States.

Winter Hazard Awareness Week

In spite of the recent unseasonably warm temperatures, rain and thunderstorms with hail, this really is Winter Hazard Awareness Week in Minnesota. In addition to the usual advice, such as not to drive on thin lake ice, the Twin Cities National Weather Service Office has some general winter safety tips here and more links to different winter safety topics at the bottom of that page.

Climatologically, your best chance of having quite a bit of snow for winter activities is in the high ground around and north of Duluth. The average winter snowfall in the Twin Cities, based on the current data period of 1981-2010, is about 54 inches.

A bit of mid-November perspective

For a final note as to how pleasant and non-threatening our weather has been this fall well into November, note that a year ago today the Twin Cities had a high of just 24 degrees with 3 inches of snow on the ground.

Enjoy the weekend.