A soggy transition to chillier temperatures by Thursday

What a glorious weekend. Blue skies and temperatures about 20 degrees warmer than normal made it a pleasure to take a bicycle ride or do that last bit of yard work. The Twin Cities reached 62 degrees on Sunday while Rochester warmed to 59.

But now we are in the second half of November and change is coming. While clouds advanced over Minnesota during the night to keep our temperatures ridiculously mild for this time of day, those clouds are also bringing rain showers and even thunderstorms. Thunderstorms are crossing southern Minnesota and the metro area this Monday morning.

Nov 16 - radar
Showers and thunderstorms are becoming more widespread this morning. Twin Cities National Weather Service

The transition out of short-sleeve weather will begin today as rounds of showers from the southwest cross all of Minnesota except the northwest corner. Temperatures will stay rather steady and well above normal.

Precipitation reinforcements will arrive tonight as a storm center rolls out of Colorado and is fed by an unseasonable plume of tropical moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. One measure that meteorologists use to quantify moisture plumes is by their precipitable water content.

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This term refers to the amount of moisture (water vapor) in a unit column of air if all the moisture could be condensed into liquid water. Actual precipitation can exceed the amount of precipitable water, especially in thunderstorms, due to moisture convergence. It is a very useful indicator of potential precipitation.

Nov 16 - Tue 6A precip water
A plume of very significant precipitable water from the Gulf of Mexico is forecast for 6 a.m. Tuesday. NOAA/College of DuPage

Periods of rain and some thunderstorms will continue statewide through Wednesday as the storm from Colorado will linger to merge with a separate storm that will slide eastward across Canada. Some locations are likely to pick up more than an inch of rain.

Nov 16 - MPX wx story
Rain will be widespread for the next few days. Twin Cities National Weather Service

Much cooler Canadian air will arrive on the back side of that storm as it exits eastbound. To accent the transition to real November weather, there is a good chance of some light snow in northern Minnesota on Thursday.

Nov 16 - Th 6A CONUS fcst
Surface forecast map for 6 a.m. Thursday. NOAA/College of DuPage

Thursday will feel like an actual November day, thanks to much chillier temperatures and gusty winds.

Nov 16 - Thur fcst highs
High temperatures on Thursday are likely to be in the 30s. NOAA Weather Prediction Center

Friday and the weekend will be a little chillier than Thursday. Enjoy the sweater weather.