Sep-tober Monday; first signs of El Nino warmth in MN?

At some point, theory becomes reality. We may have reached that point on the weather maps as our balmy fall transitions into a likely milder than average El Nino winter.

The jet stream roars north of Lake Winnipeg today. That's a good 300 miles north of the mean jet position as we stare down late October in the weather crosshairs. The result? Extended September-like warmth punctuated by a series of feeble fall cold fronts that nudge temperatures back to barely average.

If you like unseasonable warmth and a super-sized fall you're going to love this week. In fact, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's longer range climate products are all red through Halloween. And Thanksgiving. And Christmas.

No doubt we'll see some cold fronts this fall as we lurch unevenly toward the inevitable winter. But to this forecaster it looks like El Nino is already affecting jet stream patterns. Theory may already be reality on the weather maps.

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NOAA

El Nino weather map?

It's hard to pin a seasonal climate event on a single weather map. But you may want to get used to rainy low pressure system crossing from California to the desert southwest and Gulf Coast. The core of cold Canadian high pressure systems favors a northerly track through Canada with a glancing blow to the northeast United States.

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NOAA

Minnesota?

Caught in meteorological no man's land this week, and possibly many weeks this winter. A milder westerly "zonal" Pacific air flow with temperatures a good 10 degrees plus warmer than average this week. (And this winter?)

Any showers Tuesday night into early Wednesday look spotty and light with rainfall totals under one-tenth of an inch in most areas. A more meaningful rainfall event arrives Friday. NOAA's five-day rainfall outlook paints the potential for some one-half to 1 inch rainfall across Minnesota Friday. A healthy soaking favors drought laden Texas.

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NOAA

Here's a more visual graphical breakdown of the week ahead. Today's high in the mid-upper 70s is much closer to a record than average for Oct. 19.

Tomorrow's "cool front" keeps temps well above seasonal averages this week. Friday's rain shot looks promising to soak those now thirsty pine and spruce trees. The weekend looks closer to average. Is it too early to start thinking about the weekend on Monday morning?

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Weatherspark

NOAA's CPC: All red

The longer range outlooks all favor mild than average temperatures across the Upper Midwest for the foreseeable future. Sure, some attention getting cold fronts and brisk breezes will eventually arrive in the next two months. But right now, I don't see another metro frost until at least Halloween week. It's a sea of red on the temperature outlooks.

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NOAA

Mild into November?

Check out NOAA's experimental three-week temperature outlook. More of the same, with milder than average weather overall into November?

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NOAA

How about Thanksgiving, Christmas and New Year's? NOAA's three month temperature outlook favors a warmer than average temperature ribbon across the northern tier. Classic El Nino.

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NOAA

In case you missed my post last week on dueling winter forecasts, here's a good look at why NOAA is leaning milder than average for Minnesota and the Upper Midwest this winter.

NOAA is playing the winter forecast by the El Nino book, even as some others are leaning on above average Siberian snow cover to deliver more cold this winter.

I'll issue my winter outlook the first week of November as usual.

In the meantime signs of El Nino both large and small start to appear.

Stay tuned.