Rainy midweek, mild Halloween, November roses?
It's been an incredible fall season around the Upper Midwest. I can't recall a fall season so warm and pleasant.
After a remarkably beautiful and temperatures summer we've been blessed with two Septembers. More accurately two Augusts, and one September running well into October.
+5.9 degrees September temps vs. average at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport
Warmest September on record for Minnesota
+3.2 degrees October temps vs. average so far at MSP
1 - number of days below freezing at MSP so far this fall (31 degrees on Oct. 17)
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November roses?
One uplifting and beautiful sign of this remarkable fall season is the long bloom of the Weather Lab roses this year. They're still going strong as we approach Halloween.
Looking at the forecast with more 60s likely early next week, I'd say there a good chance for a few November roses at the Weather Lab this year. Roses in November in Minnesota? I can't ever recall that happening before.
Now, we turn the corner on another month. November is my least favorite month of the year in Minnesota. It's hard for me to find the redeeming qualities in a gray leafless and increasing lifeless landscape. Daylight disappears like water down the drain. If this forecaster gets a little ornery in the next few weeks at times you'll know why.
Thomas Hood said it best form his classic November poem. Here's are a couple of clips that tell the tale.
No sun--no moon!
No morn--no noon!
No dawn--no dusk--no proper time of day--
No sky--no earthly view--
No distance looking blue--
No warmth, no cheerfulness, no healthful ease,
No comfortable feel in any member--
No shade, no shine, no butterflies, no bees,
No fruits, no flowers, no leaves, no birds,
November!
Next rain system moves in
The weather maps push another low pressure system toward Minnesota Tuesday. This one looks wet Tuesday night and Wednesday. And yes, it could be cold enough on the backside for a few snowflakes by early Thursday morning. Watch how this system actually taps some of the moisture from the remnants of once Hurricane Patricia and the low along the Gulf Coast.
Don't hold your breath for any metro snowfall accumulations late Wednesday night, but I could see some snow sticking in northeast Minnesota by Thursday.
Rainfall potential with this system looks impressive to the east. But a sharp cutoff in rainfall totals will occur as you move west through Minnesota as the deeper moisture plume is drawn up across Wisconsin. Multi-inch rainfall totals favor the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and eastern United States.
Here's a more detailed breakdown on rainfall timing and the forecast this week.
Mild Halloween 2015?
The Halloween forecast is trending milder by the day. It should be a great year for trick-or-treaters. The latest trends indicate a dry day with mild southwest breezes. Temps should top out in the upper 50s, and 60 degrees is not out of the question Saturday afternoon.
Trick-or-treat temps start in the 50s and fall to near 50 by early evening.
Mild start to November?
The first days of November look mild. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model is cranking out three to four day at or above 60 degrees to open the month. The European model even pushes the metro close to 70 on about Nov. 4.
On the other hand, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Global Forecast System is hinting at snow potential around Nov. 5.
Maybe those Weather Lab roses will last well into November this year. And perhaps my faith in the month of November will get a boost.
Stay tuned.
Octobomb hit 5 years ago
It was 5 years ago this week that the infamous Octobomb roared through Minnesota.
