Mild meteorological fall continues for now

You can't draw it up much better than 2015 in Minnesota.

Any real sustained "winter" ended after the first week of March, as temperatures in the Twin Cities soared into the 60s on March 10 and hit 70 degrees for the first time on March 15. March in the Twin Cities ran +2.7 degrees warmer than average.

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Abundant rainfall and an almost ideal growing season has morphed into an excellent harvest. Corn harvest is well ahead of last year and longer term averages according to this week's Minnesota crop report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

Here's more detail on this year's harvest progress from this week's Minnesota Crop Report.

Minnesota farmers doubled their corn for grain harvest progress during the 6.6 days suitable for fieldwork for the week ending October 18, 2015, according to USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service.

This was the most days suitable for fieldwork this crop season. Most of the state experienced a killing frost towards the end of the week. Field activities for the week included fall tilling, terracing, and applying manure.

Soil moisture levels decreased with the lack of rain during the week. Topsoil moisture supplies were rated 6 percent very short, 26 percent short, 66 percent adequate, and 2 percent surplus. Subsoil moisture supplies were rated 4 percent very short, 21 percent short, 74 percent adequate, and 1 percent surplus.

Corn harvest for grain was 58 percent complete, 12 days ahead of the previous year and 4 days ahead of the fiveyear average. This was the first time this crop season that corn harvest was ahead of normal.

Corn moisture content of grain at harvest was 17 percent. Corn condition rated 89 percent good to excellent. Soybean harvest was 97 percent complete, nearly 2 weeks ahead of last year and over 1 week ahead of average. Potato harvest was nearing completion, ahead of the normal pace.

Sugarbeet harvest was virtually complete. Seventy-eight percent of the sunflower acreage has been harvested, almost 3 weeks ahead of last year and nearly 2 weeks ahead of average.

Six month warm season?

If you calculate the number of days between the last freeze at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport in spring on April 23 (29 degrees) and the first freeze in fall on Oct. 17 (31 degrees) you get 177 days. That's five months and 24 days of above freezing temperatures.

Throw in the warmest September on record about 6 degrees warmer than average and an October that's running 2.4 degrees warmer than average and you've got what some might consider six months of "summer" in Minnesota this year.

El Nino fingerprints?

Our mild meteorological fall may be the first sign of the super-sized El Nino developing in the tropical Pacific. This September was warmer than any other El Nino year by a long shot.

Only time will tell if the coming El Nino factors in to a milder than average winter in the Upper Midwest. Next week's cold front will remind us that winter is coming, El Nino or not. But the odds still seem to (heavily?) favor a milder than average winter overall.

Stay tuned.