Glorious today, Saturday morning freeze

Time to clip back the Weather Lab roses.

The season's first freeze inside the inner metro core is on the way by Saturday morning. But not before one more beautifully mild day today, as temperatures push into the upper 60s one more time across a good chunk of Minnesota.

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High pressure pushes south

The maps tell the weather story. A big sprawling Canadian high pressure cell pushes cold fronts south over next 48 hours. By Friday morning the center of the high noses into the Dakotas with a payload of freezing temperatures.

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NOAA

Saturday metro freeze

The inner metro core has still avoided freezing temps so far this season. Widespread frost has already occurred to the north and east of the metro.

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Midwest Region Climate Center

The inner metro's frost free run ends Saturday morning as temps should drop below the 32 degree mark. The perfect recipe for a freeze? Clear skies, light winds and dew points below 32 degrees. I could see 30 degrees Saturday morning in the inner metro, with some 20s in the suburbs.

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NOAA

Here's a closer breakdown of temps the next several days. We hit bottom Saturday morning, then temps moderate again by Sunday afternoon and Monday. The cold is not here to stay just yet.

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Weatherspark

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's experimental three week temperature outlook continues to paint warmer than average temps over the Upper Midwest.

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NOAA

A mild bias into Halloween this year?

Stay tuned.

2015 fire season among highest on record

9 million acres have burned this year across the U.S.

Climate Central has more on why longer term climate trends may be setting us up for an era of mega fires.

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Catastrophic wildfires in the Western U.S. are often discussed in superlatives these days, with blazes burning land more violently and more frequently in recent years than at any point on record. Those changes are considered partly driven by global warming, and a new University of Wyoming study shows that even the smallest increase in average temperature —  0.5°C (0.9°F)  —  could bring a dramatic increase in wildfire activity at higher elevations.

The study also suggests that global warming may be ushering in an era of high-elevation wildfires unlike any seen in more than 1,000 years.

The connection between catastrophic wildfires and climate change has been major news this year as record-breaking drought and withering heat have helped fuel more than 50,000 wildfires. Those blazes have scorched more than 9 million acres in the West and Alaska in 2015 — more land burned than at any point since 2006.

Warming in Alaska, where average temperatures have risen by 3°F in the last 50 years, is a prime suspect for huge wildfires there this year, while in the Lower 48, studies show that for every 1°C (1.8°F) of warming, the size of the area burned by wildfire in the West could quadruple.

The new study, published Monday in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, provides more evidence that even a small amount of warming has a huge effect on wildfire.