Wet for now, fall color delayed this year?

Somebody who loves warm sunny September weekends has taken control of the master weather switch.

Our latest rainmaker has arrived during midweek once again. The timing of weather systems across Midwest favors another clearing trend just in time for the weekend.

First, rain.

The heaviest rain zone as expected so far has favored a Sioux Falls-Duluth line.

Our inbound weather system has slowed as it becomes detached from the main jet stream steering winds. That back loads metro rainfall later in the event, overnight into Thursday look like the wettest period. The system will also fade with time, as jet stream energy slides to the north into Canada once again. The result? A Friday clearing trend and another mostly warm and sunny weekend as southerly breezes return by Friday.

[image]

In the meantime, look for more waves of rain. Some will be heavy and produce local downpours. Computer generated meteorologist massaged rainfall output from NOAA.

[image]

As this system has slowed, forecast models have a hard timing grabbing onto those changes. Nonlinear, dynamic weather systems becoming detached from the main jet stream steering currents and changing speed and intensity are hard problems to handle for dynamic forecast models. Here's an updated look at the delayed, but still heavy rainfall forecast for the Twin Cities.

Weekend winning streak

It's as if Minnesota's weather machine is making up for the past two winters. The perfect summer, followed by the perfect fall? We are leading charmed weather lives indeed. For at least another weekend and into next week.

Fall color delayed?

The lack of September cold and frost appears to have slowed the fall color progression across Minnesota this year. The last weekend in September is typically the peak for fall color up north. Colors have barely started to budge in the Twin Cities. It still looks and feels like late summer out there. here;s the latest fall color update from the Minnesota DNR.

Hints of October frost?

I'm still seeing signs of a possible first metro frost near the end of the first week of October. That's pretty close to average. The latest GFS 16-day wishcast still clings to a real cold front around that time.  Let's see how long this trend lasts, I'll believe it for real when it's still there 3-5 days out.

“We also try to care for our common home, the good earth. All of us at this mass profess our faith and strive to live it in service and love. We take seriously your call in Laudato Si’ to face the challenges of our day ...” - Cardinal Wuerl at mass at Basilica of the National Shrine of the Immaculate Conception

Pope Francis begins US visit with climate change remarks

Right out of the gate. Pope Francis delivered praise for President Obama's climate change initiatives at the White House Wednesday.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RwPzPTi2918

Here's more from Climate Central on the Pope's remarks.

If there was any doubt that climate change was going to be on top of Pope Francis's list during his visit to the U.S., it dissipated on Wednesday morning. In remarks at the White House, the Pope called climate change "a problem which can no longer be left to a future generation."

The remarks kick off a six-day visit to the U.S. — Pope Francis's first time here — that includes speeches in front of a joint session of Congress and the United Nations General Assembly and highlight a continuing commitment to make climate change a central issue of his papacy.

In June, the Pope published an encyclical on climate change and the environment and he has since pushed to make climate change a moral issue, particularly given the toll it will take on the world's poorest.

"When it comes to the care of our 'common home,' we are living at a critical moment of history. We still have time to make the changes needed to bring about a sustainable and integral development, for we know that things can change," Pope Francis said, referencing language from his encyclical.

In addition to calling for climate action, the Pope also praised President Obama's Clean Power Plan as an "encouraging" step toward reducing air pollution and the impacts of climate change.

The Pope's address to Congress tomorrow is likely to continue the climate message. His address at the U.N. will also likely touch on climate change, particularly as the U.N. prepares to adopt the Sustainable Development Goals, which lay out a pathway for development. Climate change plays a more prominent role in these goals than the ones they're replacing, known as the Millenium Development Goals.

President Obama, who spoke before the Pope at Wednesday's White House event, reflected a similar moral framing for climate change action.

“Holy Father, you remind us that we have a sacred obligation to protect our planet, God’s magnificent gift to us. We support your call to all world leaders to support the communities most vulnerable to a changing climate and to come together to preserve our precious world for future generations," he said.