Top 10 warm September? Scattered storms tonight

This is shaping up to be a September for the record books.

The first half of September is in the record books, and temperatures at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport are running nearly as warm as the entire month of August.

• +5.3 degrees - September temps vs. average so far at MSP Airport

• 70.6 degrees observed average temperature at MSP through Sept. 15

• 70.7 degrees observed monthly temperature for August at MSP Airport

Looking at the maps, the second half of September also looks mild.

A persistent ridge of high pressure, the Bermuda High appears ready to continue to pump waves of unseasonable warmth into Minnesota during the next two weeks. Long range maps hint that an unseasonably strong Bermuda ridge could persist over the central United States in the last days of this month.

The polar front jet stream appears likely to be shoved well north of its seasonal mean position into central Canada. Check out the notion of events from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Global Forecast System as we turn the page into October.

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center agrees with the assessment. A warm air bath is the favored solution for most of the lower 48 through the end of September.

I see many more 70s and even a few 80s in the forecast the rest of this month. I don't see any signs of an early metro frost this month. NOAA's GFS is cranking out 40 degrees as the lowest metro temp through the end of September.

We could very possibly be heading for a top 10 warmest September on record across Minnesota. If the maps pan out as advertised today, we may even be stalking one of the warmest Septembers on record by month's end.

Stay tuned.

Nocturnal storms likely again

How do you keep a meteorologist up at night? Light up the Doppler with scattered storms. Call it nocturnal meteorological convective insomnia. Last night's convection was the second night in a row. We likely do it again tonight as storms fire on a low level jet stream after dark tonight. A second wave of storms fires tomorrow as the cold front sweeps east.

Here's the set up on the maps. Cooler air pours in behind the front Friday.

There is a marginal risk for severe storms across northern and central Minnesota today.

The risk zone expands to include most of Minnesota tomorrow.

Frequent lighting, downpours, 1 inch-plus diameter hail and winds to 60 mph are the primary risks with storms over the next 36 hours.

Another spectacular weekend?

Timing is everything. A lazy high pressure ridge sets up over Minnesota again this weekend. Our September weekend weather winning streak continues. Temperatures warm back into the mid and upper 70s again next week with another shot at 80 degrees.