Summer, the sequel. California firestorm

Our long summer romance continues this week across Minnesota.

Warm southerly breezes pump balmy remnant summer air masses north. Tropical humidity levels return this week, you'll notice the rise in dew points into the mid and upper 60s by Wednesday.

The Summer Glory Index painted summer 2015 as the third best on record for the Twin Cities. Looking at the maps, it appears that weather will linger another week, maybe two.

Our persistent warmth could be the early symptoms of a budding Super El Nino in the tropical Pacific. The smart money is still on a milder than average weather pattern overall through this winter across Minnesota and the Upper Midwest. This could be the first phase of a memorable fall in Minnesota.

Create a More Connected Minnesota

MPR News is your trusted resource for the news you need. With your support, MPR News brings accessible, courageous journalism and authentic conversation to everyone - free of paywalls and barriers. Your gift makes a difference.

914 sunset bass Lake
Summery weekend sunset at Bass lake near Cohasset, Minnesota. Paul Huttner/MPR News

Forecast data points...

  • +4.5 degrees -- temps vs. average so far in September at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport

  • 4 days at or above 80 degrees likely in the metro this week

  • 35+ mph wind gusts Tuesday across Minnesota (expect wind advisories)

  • 67 degrees - sticky dew points by Wednesday afternoon

914 msp

Heat pump high

No, I don't often write those words in September. Our persistent southerly wind machine may have you reaching for the air conditioning button by mid-week.

The weather maps show a stalled high pressure ridge over the Appalachians to the east. That's acting as a block to low pressure waves riding a stationary front in the Dakotas this week Minnesota lies on the warm and windy side of that pattern with persistent southerly flow.

914 allfcsts_loop_ndfd (1)
NOAA

Wind machine

The stuck weather pattern acts as a wind machine Tuesday. Sustained southerly winds over 20 mph blow Tuesday.

914 WindSpd12_uppermissvly
NOAA

Look for southerly gusts over 35 mph at times across open lakes. I could see some swells of 4 feet or more on the north end of Minnesota's bigger lakes like Red, Mille Lacs, Leech and Winnibigoshish Tuesday afternoon.

914 WindGust12_uppermissvly
NOAA

I had the opportunity to venture out on the huge inland sea we call Lake Winnibigoshish last weekend with some good friends. The sheer size of Minnesota's fourth largest lake is something to behold.

Here's a list of the 10 biggest lakes in Minnesota. Yes, we boast some massive inland seas capable of huge swells in the Land of 10,000 Lakes. Massive Minnetonka is just No. 9 on the list.

Here's the list of the 10 largest lakes in Minnesota according to minnesotafunfacts.com

The Ten Largest Lakes in Minnesota

Minnesota is the “Land of 10,000 Lakes”, but there are actually 11,842 lakes that are 10 acres or more in size and 21,871 lakes that are over 2.5 acres in size.

The Ten Largest Lakes located within the borders of Minnesota are:

Red Lake (both “Upper” and “Lower”) – 288,800 acres

Mille Lacs Lake – 132,516 acres

Leech Lake – 111,527 acres

Lake Winnibigoshish – 58,544 acres

Lake Vermilion – 40,557 acres

Lake Kabetogama – 25,760 acres

Mud Lake (Marshall County) – 23,700 acres

Cass Lake – 15,596

Lake Minnetonka – 14,004 acres

Otter Tail Lake – 13,725 acres

July flashback

The forecast maps look more like July than September this week. Get ready for some warmth, with a side of humidity as dew points climb through the 60s by Wednesday. Friday's cool front is brief, then temps warm again to near 80 by next week.

914 kky2
Weatherspark - Euro data for MSP Airport

Warm September

The weather pattern through next week looks likely assure us a (much?) warmer than average September across Minnesota and the Upper Midwest. Much of the nation remains bathed in warmer than average temps through next week.

914 814temp.new
NOAA

California wildfire emergency

This is what exceptional four years of drought does to a landscape.

Recent fire behavior in California is not just extreme, it's unprecedented. Brush is so dry it literally explodes upon ignition. Thousands evacuated from entire neighborhoods.  Hundreds of homes up in flames in the past week.

914 valle fire
California Department of Transprotation

Here's a blow by blow account of the unprecedented and frightening state of emergency in California these days from the Sacramento Bee.

UPDATE 10:30 p.m.

Cosumnes Fire Department spokeswoman Julie Rider reports that the Butte fire in Amador and Calaveras counties has destroyed 135 residences and 79 outbuildings. Fire officials have also allowed some area residences back into their homes.

UPDATE 8:50 p.m.

The ravenous Valley fire in Lake County has consumed 400 houses and 20 commercial buildings in the areas of Boggs Mountain, Hidden Valley Lake and Middletown, Cal Fire officials just reported.

UPDATE 2:50 p.m.

Cal Fire director Ken Pimlott visited Sunday with three firefighters being treated at UC Davis’ Firefighters Burn Institute Regional Burn Center and the UC Davis Medical Center for burns suffered in the Valley fire in Lake County. A Cal Fire captain was also being treated for burns from the fire.

“All of them are in great spirits,” Pimlott said. “To be honest with you, they just want to get back out and into the fight. But there are probably going to be weeks of recovery.”

Pimlott said the firefighters, who suffered burns to their hands and faces, are receiving treatments to prevent infection and will undergo painful cleaning procedures. He said all are expected to recover from their wounds, which include second-degree burns, but may require physical therapy to regain full mobility.

UPDATE 2:10 p.m.

Cal Fire now estimates the Valley fire in Lake County has destroyed “hundreds of structures,” although spokesman Daniel Berlant said, “crews have not had a chance to do a full damage assessment.”

UPDATE 12:50 p.m.

The governor’s emergency services chief is calling this summer’s fires the most volatile he has seen in his 30 years of emergency response work, saying the cause is mainly dry conditions from the four-year drought.

“The bushes, the trees have absolutely no moisture in them, and the humidities are so low that we are seeing these ‘fire starts’ just erupt into conflagrations,” Mark Ghilarducci, director of the Governor’s Office of Emergency Services, said Sunday after a briefing with fire and emergency officials in Calaveras County, scene of the massive Butte fire that has burned more than 80 homes.

“The fires are spreading faster than I have seen in my 30 years,” he said.