NOAA: 97 percent chance 2015 warmest year globally

And the global hot weather hits just keep on comin'.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announces this summer was the hottest on record globally. The latest data makes it a virtual slam dunk that 2015 will indeed go down as the hottest year on record, again.

Here's more from NOAA's State of the Climate report for August.

The combined average temperature over global land and ocean surfaces for August 2015 was 0.88°C (1.58°F) above the 20th century average of 15.6°C (60.1°F) and the highest August in the 136-year record. This value surpassed the previous record set in 2014 by 0.09°C (0.16°F).

Most of the world's surface was substantially warmer than average and, in some locations, record warm during August 2015, contributing to the monthly global record warmth. This was the sixth month in 2015 that has broken its monthly temperature record (February, March, May, June, July, and August).

August 2015 tied with January 2007 as the third warmest monthly departure from average for any of the 1628 months since records began in January 1880, behind February 2015 and March 2015 (+0.89°C / +1.60°F). Five of the ten largest monthly temperature departures from average occurred in 2015.

The average global land surface temperature for August 2015 was 1.14°C (2.05°F) above the 20th century average—the highest August value in the 1880–2015 record, exceeding the previous record set in 1998 by +0.13°C (+0.23°F).

According to the Land and Ocean Temperature Percentiles map (shown above), much-warmer-than-average conditions was present across much of the western contiguous U.S., Mexico, South America, Africa, Europe, and parts of eastern Asia.

According to the Land & Ocean Temperature Percentiles map, record warmth was observed across South America and parts of Europe, Asia, and Africa. South America, Europe, and Africa experienced their warmest August average temperature since 1910. Near- to much-cooler-than-average conditions were present across Alaska, western Canada, the central contiguous U.S., and western and southeastern Asia.

The UK Met Office issued a report this week predicting 2016 will also likely see record or near-record global temperatures. If that happens, Earth will see three consecutive years with record-breaking surface temperatures: 2014, 2015, and 2016. That's unprecedented in the modern global climate record.

2015: A slam dunk for hottest year on record globally?

Take your pick of probability adjectives. The summer data makes it almost certain that 2015 will surpass last year as the "new" hottest year on record. How certain? How about 97%?

And the sheer magnitude of the warmth this year is eye-opening.

Here's another angle from NOAA.

Somewhat. Very. Extremely. How likely is it that 2015 will be the new warmest year on record?

Thursday, September 17, 2015

Anthony Arguez1, Scott Applequist1, Michael C. Kruk2, Michael F. Squires1, and Russell S. Vose1

Global surface temperatures have remained at or near record-warm levels throughout 2015, leading many to prognosticate that 2015 will eclipse 2014 as the warmest year on record1-3, perhaps by a relatively large margin.

Based on the latest data from NOAA’s global surface temperature dataset (NOAAGlobalTemp), the 2015 global temperature average through July is running 0.09°C (0.16°F) above the 2014 average and 0.13°C above the January-July 2014 average. That might not seem like a lot, but 2014 eclipsed 2010 as the warmest year on record by an even smaller margin, 0.04°C.

2015 extremely unlikely to lose its lead

Following this three-step approach, we estimate a 97% probability that 2015 will become the warmest year on record. The graph and bar chart below summarize the distribution of the simulations for each month (top) as well as the resulting annual anomalies (bottom). Note that the values are anomalies relative to the corresponding 1971-2000 averages.

Climate Generation event in Mankato Monday evening

Please join me as we talk about climate change in Mankato Monday evening at Will Steger's Climate Generation event at South Central College.

In light of this week's incredible climate change news linking drought and devastating western fires and record summer heat globally this should be a great opportunity to talk about how climate change is affecting us here in Minnesota and worldwide.

Hope to see you there.