Minnesota’s September summer; Arctic Sea ice minimum

The Beach Boys would have loved this summer in Minnesota. A seemingly endless supply of warm sunny days and balmy nights. Wind, waves and beautiful Minnesotans at local beaches.

But I digress.

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Breezy day on Bay Lake near Deerwood in central Minnesota. MN Lake cams

Our super-sized summer of 2015 lingers two more days this week. The ferocious gales ease a bit to more typical breezes Wednesday. As expected winds gusted between 30 and 40 mph across much of Minnesota Tuesday afternoon.

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Meso West

The temperature soared to a toasty 87 degrees at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport Tuesday afternoon. That's a full 15 degrees above the average high of 72 for Sept. 15. It's also the warmest day in 10 days since the mercury hit 89 on Sept. 5.

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NOAA

Temperatures in the 80s come with a side of humidity Wednesday as dew points climb into the sticky mid and upper 60s. Scattered storms enter the forecast picture by late Wednesday. There is a marginal risk for a few severe storms favoring central and northern Minnesota Wednesday.

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Low pressure in the Dakotas nudges east the next two days. Scattered shower and thunderstorm chances grow as the low and trailing cold front bump east.

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NOAA

Thursday's marginal severe risk area expands to include all of eastern Minnesota, much of Iowa and Wisconsin.

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NOAA

For the Twin Cities metropolitan area, the best chances for thunderstorms appear to be Wednesday night, and again Thursday. You'll notice the dew point climbing as a sticky air mass oozes north Wednesday and Thursday. A follow-on low grazes eastern Minnesota with shower chances Friday.

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Weathersaprk - NOAA GFS data

Eastern Minnesota into Wisconsin is the favored zone for another soaking rain after a few dry breezy days.

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NOAA

NOAA: 4th lowest Arctic Sea ice minimum reached on Sept. 11

Another low ice year in the Arctic. The 9 lowest Arctic Sea ice coverage years in the past 9 years. The trends continue for Arctic warming, and low sea ice in the changing Arctic. The Northwest Passage is open again. Arctic cruise anyone?

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NOAA

Here's more from NOAA.

On September 11, Arctic sea ice reached its likely minimum extent for 2015. The minimum ice extent was the fourth lowest in the satellite record, and reinforces the long-term downward trend in Arctic ice extent. Sea ice extent will now begin its seasonal increase through autumn and winter. In the Antarctic, sea ice extent is average, a substantial contrast with recent years when Antarctic winter extents reached record high levels.

Please note that this is a preliminary announcement. Changing winds or late-season melt could still reduce the Arctic ice extent, as happened in 2005 and 2010. NSIDC scientists will release a full analysis of the Arctic melt season, and discuss the Antarctic winter sea ice growth, in early October.

On September 11, 2015, sea ice extent dropped to 4.41 million square kilometers (1.70 million square miles), the fourth lowest minimum in the satellite record. This appears to be the lowest extent of the year. In response to the setting sun and falling temperatures, ice extent will now climb through autumn and winter. However, a shift in wind patterns or a period of late season melt could still push the ice extent lower.

The minimum extent was reached four days earlier than the 1981 to 2010 average minimum date of September 15. The extent ranked behind 2012 (lowest), 2007 (second lowest), and 2011 (third lowest). Moreover, the nine lowest extents in the satellite era have all occurred in the last nine years.

Both the Northern Sea Route, along the coast of Russia, and Roald Amundsen’s route through the Northwest Passage are open.

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NOAA