July flashback. British Met Office climate warning

September summer

Mid September is a dicey time for Minnesota weather. Extremes get more extreme at this latitude as we approach the Autumnal equinox. Temperatures can literally push 100 degrees or hover near freezing this time of year. You want evidence? Check out the gaping 62 degree range in observed temperatures for September 15th in the metro according to the Minnesota Weatherguide Calendar.

  • 98 degrees - record high temp at MSP Airport for September 15th (1939)

  • 36 degrees - record low temp at MSP Airport for September 15th (2011, 2007, 1964)

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We bask in July-like summer glory for another 72 hours in Minnesota. Gusty winds join unseasonable warmth and increasing humidity as primary weather drivers Tuesday. The models are cranking out some impressive temperature numbers for mid-September. I won't be shocked to see metro locations hitting 86 or 87 degrees the next three days, and 90 degrees is likely again for western and southwest Minnesota.

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NOAA

Montevideo hit 90 degrees Monday afternoon. Temps hit the 100 degree mark over the thermal ridge near Winner, South Dakota and across northern Nebraska. I've overlaid afternoon temps around peak heating hours Monday on the 2km visible satellite image from College of DuPage.

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College of DuPage

Heat pump high

I like to call this living in the "tent." Low pressure in the Dakotas and a warm front cold front combo draped over Minnesota to north and west. We enjoy balmy but gusty late summer like breezes through Thursday. Scattered rain and thunder creeps closer and works gradually into the forecast this week as the tent slowly collapses eastward.

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NOAA

Gusty

Wind becomes and increasing factor Tuesday. Gusts over 30 mph to near 40 mph are a good bet over much of Minnesota. A bad hair day alert is in effect.

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NOAA

Humid too

You can feel the dew point n the rise as it passes the 60 degree mark. Dew pins could peak as high as 68 degrees later this week across a good chunk of Minnesota. Yes, you'll be tempted to hit the AC button in your car and at home.

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NOAA

Wednesday and Thursday are the most humid days in the Twin Cities. A September dew point approaching 70 degrees? Where's the nearest beach?

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Iowa State University

Fall returns Friday

At least temporarily. Friday's cool front brings us back to seasonal levels. Another spectacular September weekend appears likely as temps warm back into the 70s. The perfect summer lingers well into mid-September.

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Weatherpsark - NOAA GFS model data

British Met Office: Signs of accelerated climate warming

It appears the so called faux pause in the warming of the global climate system was a speed bump at best. Signs of accelerated planetary warming abound. 2014 was the warmest year on record globally. 2015 is nearly a lock to surpass 2014 as the next new warmest year globally. Given the current state of affairs in the Pacific Ocean with El Nino and the PDO, 2016 could eclipse both and be the next new warmest year on record. Three consecutive "warmest years on record" globally? That would be an alarming first in the modern climate record.

Here's more on the study from the British Met Office.

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New research shows regional temperature and rainfall worldwide will be affected by big changes that are underway in key patterns in the global climate system.

The latest climate predictions and global observations suggest that shifts in key global climate patterns, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), an El Niño in the tropical Pacific and the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) are underway. They are implicated in the weak Indian monsoon and relatively inactive Atlantic hurricane season this year and will affect regional temperature and rainfall worldwide in coming years. They also affect global temperature; with a warming influence from El Nino and positive PDO, and a cooling from a negative AMO.

Professor Adam Scaife said: "Although we can't say for sure that the slowdown in global warming is over, global temperatures are now rising again."

These changes suggest both 2015 and 2016 are likely to be very warm globally. Earth's average surface temperature is running at or near record levels so far in 2015 at 0.38±0.14°C* above the 1981-2010 average (0.68±0.14 °C above the 1961-1990 average). The observations of exceptional global temperature this year agree well with the Met Office forecast issued in 2014.

Head of the Met Office Hadley Centre, Professor Stephen Belcher said: "We know natural patterns contribute to global temperature in any given year, but the very warm temperatures so far this year indicate the continued impact of increasing greenhouse gases. With the potential that next year could be similarly warm, it's clear that our climate continues to change."

These changes are consistent with a return of rapid warming in the near term. Professor Scaife continued: "We can't be sure this is the end of the slowdown but decadal warming rates are likely to reach late 20th century levels within two years."

Further long-term warming is expected over the coming decades, but the patterns described in this report will continue to vary the pace of that warming.

Last updated: 14 September 2015

Climate refugees already in motion?

Growing signs support the notion that recent waves of refugees from different parts of the world are being driven by climate changes.

Microsoft Word - JCLID1100296_CoverSheet.doc
NOAA

Here's a clip from an eye opening piece at DailyKos.

In 2011, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reported that climate change was "a major factor in more frequent Mediterranean droughts." By 2013, researchers were linking the drought in Syria to its civil war. A year ago, the Emmy Award-winning documentary Years Of Living Dangerously further fleshed out the link between climate change and the war in Syria, as well as growing violence over increasing water scarcity in Yemen. Last spring, a peer-reviewed scientific study explicitly linked the Syrian war to climate change:

“It’s a pretty convincing climate fingerprint,” said Retired Navy Rear Adm. David Titley, a meteorologist who’s now a professor at Penn State University. After decades of poor water policy, “there was no resilience left in the system.” Titley says, given that context, that the record-setting drought caused Syria to “break catastrophically.”“It’s not to say you could predict ISIS out of that, but you just set everything up for something really bad to happen,” Titley told me in a phone interview. Given the new results, Titley says, “you can draw a very credible climate connection to this disaster we call ISIS right now.”