Thursday thunder threat

On "storms"

We used to call it the "storms" shift.

In my days as an operational meteorologist at Weather Command in Chicago, one forecaster was designated solely to winter storms. That meteorologist didn't work a regular shift. She simply stayed home and went about life keeping one eye on developing winter storm potential. When a storm approached, she sprang into action for what could be hours or days on end, issuing winter storm warnings and follow-up to clients.

Who benefits from such detailed and precise storm warnings? Big gas and electric utilities who manage highly variable daily energy demand loads. City public works departments who manage snow plow operations and schedule crews accordingly to keep your commute as hassle free as possible. At one point, Weather Command had nearly every city and suburb from Milwaukee through Chicago to Gary, Indiana as snow and ice clients.

I've always wondered what it's like to work for NOAA's Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Okla.

The laser focus in severe storm season? Painting risk zones for severe weather outbreaks and issuing severe weather watches watches. Local NWS offices follow up with warnings.

A little inside baseball.

Being the lead weather guy at MPR News is a synthesis of several roles. Create content and deliver hopefully interesting and informative daily weather chats to a smart, weather-hungry audience on MPR News. Dream up, create and execute compelling, relevant and newsworthy radio programming steeped in the latest evolving climate science on Climate Cast. Create and feed a hopefully insightful and popular daily weather blog called Updraft. Feed the growing suite of social media platforms @MPRWeather. Perform as much community service as possible representing MPR News by giving various talks for organizations and at community events.

All the time in the background? Watch at least four major runs a day roll in from over a dozen different forecast models that usually spit out different answers for tomorrow's forecast. The trump card? Constant readiness for the next severe weather outbreak. Alerting MPR News staff and executing timely yet reassuring live severe weather coverage when needed. Storms shift, on steroids. It's said the reality of war is hours of boredom punctuated by moments of sheer terror. Live severe weather coverage is not much different some days.

But enough about me, let's talk a little weather.

Thursday thunder threat

Our next low pressure wave rolls in from the Dakotas Thursday. Look for increased numbers of showers and storms moving from west to east. The system timing

appears to have slowed a bit

, has changed again, with Wednesday late model runs bringing scattered storms into the metro during the day Thursday.

Storms fire over the eastern Dakotas and Minnesota Thursday. The highest risk for severe weather is in the unstable air mass ahead of the advancing front. Look for individual severe storms to congeal into a potential MCS, another possible bow echo with hail and damaging winds that could be tearing through Aberdeen and Sioux Falls heading into western Minnesota. The latest thinking on timing? Scattered showers and T-Storms during the day, with more numerous cells in the evening into Thursday night.

Here's the latest risk zone form NOAA's Storm Prediction Center.

Another soaker

As I wrote Wednesday morning, rainfall has been remarkably timely this summer. Our next soaker favors broad-brush .50 to 1 inch rainfall totals across Minnesota. The best chance of multi-inch rainfall favors southwest Minnesota.

Split weekend?

The models and the forecast are still split on weekend rainfall potential. The European Model leans mostly dry, NOAA's Global Forecast System keeps thundershowers in for Sunday. An overconfident meteorologist can tell you which solution is right, but they would be selling you a shaky bill of goods. Let's see how the models sort this out. One thing I am certain about, you'll notice the muggy air mass as dew points rise into the upper 60s Thursday.

Here's the Euro version of events.

Seeley: Camelot in Embarrass

My always insightful MPR colleague and University of Minnesota climate expert Dr. Mark Seeley sends along this interesting tidbit. Usually icy Embarrass is enjoying one of the the most ideal summers on record. Camelot in Embarrass? Who knew?

I may talk about this on Friday, but I thought I would throw the idea out on the table before leaving for FarmFest today. I was provoked to think about this as Rollin Fowler reported just 36 F this morning from Embarrass.

We have talked about the Camelot Climate Index in the past. It is an assessment of climate conditions relative to human comfort, using 75 F as an ideal daytime high (great for outdoor activity without stress), and 45 F as an ideal nighttime low (sleeping comfort mostly). It also uses humidity, precipitation, and sunshine in the determination of the index.

Since the June 20th morning low of 35 F, Embarrass has reported abundant daytime high temperatures close to 75 F and nighttime low temperatures close to 45 F, with a great deal of sunshine and low humidity. Perhaps more than any other location in the state.

I find it interesting that the coldest place in the state (and often coldest in the nation) has had such a magnificent summer on the Camelot Climate Index. Perhaps the citizens of Embarrass are closer to Camelot than most of us.

Mark