Minnesota’s unusual August storm, Atlantic Hurricane Danny
Augtober
You'll be forgiven if you wake up Wednesday and think you've slept through September.
A rare October-like storm system in August spins north over Lake Superior Wednesday. The system defies analog storms from the Twin Cities NWS for the month of August. In fact, the low pressure center with this unusual system may rival the lowest summertime pressure readings on record at MSP Airport as it passes overhead.
A quick eye-catching clip from the Twin Cities NWS forecast discussion.
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
258 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2015
VERY POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM SOUTHWEST MN TO THE ARROWHEAD REGION BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. IT IS VERY RARE TO SEE SUCH A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE SUMMER. IN FACT IT MAY WELL RIVAL THE LOW PRESSURE RECORD FOR MSP.
The system continues to march toward Lake Superior Wednesday with a payload of soaking rain.
Latest Upper Midwest radar loop
The heaviest rain bands pivot around the low and spiral through northeast Minnesota early Wednesday. Totals over two inches are likely from the Brainerd Lakes area through Iron Range and North Shore communities.
Windy Wednesday
First rain, next wind. As the low spins over Lake Superior Wednesday a gusty northwest wind cranks up. Look for whitecaps on area lakes Wednesday.
Actual air temperatures struggle to reach the 60s across parts of Minnesota Wednesday. Factor in the wind and it feels like (apparent temperature) the 50s. Wind chill in August?
It could be worse. Check out this large and intense "firenado" from the Soda Fire in Idaho.
Summer returns Thursday
By Thursday afternoon you'll remember that the calendar still says August. The summery sequel lasts into Saturday when our next storm front arrives.
Steamy State Fair opener?
Step right up! See the weather contortionist do seemingly impossible twists and turns stretching for the long-range forecast!
It's true. Medium-range forecasting can be as dicey as a carnival trick. Buyer beware. Your results may vary. You must be over 5'-9" tall to ride this contraption.
The GFS continues to advertise a building heat dome in the Midwest late next week. The latest trends suggest we could be in for a steamy start to the Minnesota State Fair for at least part of the opening weekend. I'm shocked.
Here's the latest NOAA GFS 16-day output. Keep in mind longer range outlooks like this are better with temperature trends than day-to-day numbers and precipitation. A few days in a row of model runs with the same notion of 90-degree heat boosts forecaster confidence. Stay skeptical, but stay tuned.
Atlantic Hurricane Danny ahead
Yesterday I posted about the probable development of the 4th named Atlantic tropical system. Today we have Tropical Storm Danny, and likely Hurricane Danny soon.
Steering currents favor a continued WNW track for Danny. Conditions are favorable for hurricane formation. As you can see in the satellite loop below, Danny has a nice concentric circulation and outflow.
Danny's spaghetti model forecast trajectory could spell trouble for the Caribbean Islands in the next week.
The southeast U.S. and Gulf of Mexico will need to be on alert as Danny marches west the next few days. El Niño years tend to suppress hurricane activity. But it only takes on bad storm to ruin your year, or decade. Hurricane Andrew struck during an El Niño year.
Stay tuned.