Flash flood watch cancelled for metro
Update 7:35 pm
Flash flood watch dropped for metro counties. Expect scattered rainfall of varying intensity in the Twin Cities overnight. A flash flood watch remains in effect for southwest Minnesota through Monday morning.
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR
* PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST IOWA...SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING IN NORTHWEST ...IOWA...DICKINSON...LYON IA...O`BRIEN...
OSCEOLA...PLYMOUTH AND SIOUX. IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA... COTTONWOOD...JACKSON...MURRAY...NOBLES AND ROCK. IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...DIXON. IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...CLAY SD... LINCOLN SD AND UNION.
* THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
* AFTER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT WHICH BROUGHT SOME SPOTTY AREAS OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA FROM ONE TO SIX INCHES OF RAINFALL...ADDITIONAL AND MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...TRACKING OVER A SIMILAR LOCATION TONIGHT. RAINFALL WILL AVERAGE AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH SOME LOCATIONS GETTING LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS AS STORMS TRACK OVER THE SAME
AREAS.
* RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS...AND WOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING IN URBAN AREAS...AS WELL AS SMALL STREAM AND OTHER
POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS.
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Our next weathermaker is here and it comes with heavy rainfall.
A slow moving cold front lingers across southern Minnesota through Monday morning. The resulting steering currents are weak, and that means slow moving heavy downpours.
Expect showers and T-Storms coverage to increase in southern Minnesota including the Twin Cities metro late afternoon and through Sunday night into Monday morning. Local rainfall totals of 1" to 3" look likely, with some heavier totals possible. NOAA's NAM model cranks out 3.33" of rain at MSP tonight, NOAA's GFS a paltry .28" total. Pick your favorite weather (model) poison. The truth probably lies somewhere in between for most southern Minnesota towns. My read is the heaviest rains will fall south of the metro along the I-90 corridor.
Latest Twin Cities radar loop
The Twin Cities NWS has issued a flash flood watch through Monday morning.
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MINNEAPOLIS...ST. PAUL...STILLWATER...OLIVIA...HUTCHINSON...GAYLORD...CHASKA...SHAKOPEE...HASTINGS...REDWOOD FALLS...NEW ULM...ST. PETER...LE SUEUR...FARIBAULT...RED WING...ST. JAMES...MANKATO...WASECA...FAIRMONT...HUDSON...PRESCOTT...MENOMONIE...DURAND
1056 AM CDT SUN AUG 16 2015
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN HAS ISSUED A* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN MINNESOTA...BLUEEARTH...BROWN...CARVER...DAKOTA...GOODHUE...HENNEPIN...LE SUEUR...MARTIN...MCLEOD...NICOLLET...RAMSEY...R EDWOOD...RENVILLE...RICE...SCOTT...SIBLEY...WASECA...WASHINGTON AND
WATONWAN. IN WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...DUNN...PEPIN...PIERCE AND ST. CROIX.
* FROM 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
* 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN IS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY FROM NEW ULM THROUGH THE SOUTHERN TWIN CITIES METRO TO MENOMONIE. LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.
* FLASH FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS...CREEKS...STREAMS AND URBAN AREAS IS POSSIBLE. CAMPERS SHOULD STAY VIGILANT TONIGHT.
The treat for severe storms with wind and hail is low (marginal) with this system.
The bigger threat is for slow moving storms with heavy rainfall "training" over the same areas. This type of pattern is like box cars on a rail train that dump several payloads of heavy rain in the same spot.
Keep an eye out for locally heavy downpours, ponding of water and localized flooding overnight through Monday morning.