Doppler watch: Scattered rain and thunder today
Fire up the Doppler.
Our next low pressure wave is here with an increasingly muggy air mass in tow. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are on the weather menu today and tonight. The highest risk for any severe weather? Eastern South Dakota and southwest Minnesota.
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Coverage of showers and thunderstorms should be spotty through today. Higher and more concentrated storms coverage develops late afternoon through tonight, as a cluster of strong but probably sub-severe storms approaches the metro from the west.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's High-Resolution Rapid Refresh radar shot for 10 p.m. tonight show a line of strong (but probably sub-severe) storms entering the west metro.
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center and the Twin Cities NWS are not too bullish on the chances for severe weather with metro storms tonight.
The best chance for severe storms favors southwest Minnesota this evening, with storms likely to be sub-severe by the time they reach the metro. Here's a relevant snippet from the Twin Cities NWS forecast discussion. Feed your inner weather geek.
WITH THIS INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...COULD SEE A FEW SEVERE REPORTS DURING THE EVENING. IF THIS WAVE WERE TO SLOW DOWN AS HAS BEEN THE RECENT TREND...THE SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE CONFINED FURTHER WEST DUE TO TIMING.
AS THE STORMS PROGRESS EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...THEY SHOULD GENERALLY WEAKEN...SO ANY SEVERE WEATHER TO REACH EASTERN MN/WESTERN WI WOULD BE VERY ISOLATED. WITH PWATS INCREASING TO 1.75+" AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE FORWARD PROPAGATING AND PROGRESSIVELY MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT.
With dew points surging well into the 60s today, the potential for heavy downpours and some localized 1 inch-plus rainfall totals is there. We could see some gully washers cross Minnesota from west to east tonight.
Keep the umbrella handy and stay tuned for updates later today and tonight as storms become more focused.