Classic summer weekend, vacation worthy next week

Warm and humid with a chance of scattered thunderstorms.

That pretty much sums up the summer forecast in Minnesota. This weekend features a classic summer weather pattern. Mixed sun, warm afternoons, a touch of humidity, a few spotty Whack-A-Mole thunderstorms.

Most of us stay dry this weekend, I expect only about 10 to 20 percent storm coverage at any one time across Minnesota this weekend. If you're the one that gets soaked, you might want to buy a lottery ticket?

Latest soaking

Thursday night's soaking was a classic gully washer. A few of us stayed to enjoy the lightning show and sheets of torrential rain after our regular Thursday night hockey game.

Rainfall totals were highly variable as usual in summertime convection. Many metro locations picked up a quick half-inch to 1 inch rainfall. Pockets of 2 to 4 inches-plus swamped several Minnesota towns. Becker, Big lake, Kimball and Onamia all recorded more than 4 inches of rain Thursday.

Here are some of the heaviest rainfall totals form Thursday night's soaking.

Some Twin Cities, Wisconsin and southern Minnesota totals.

Up north in Minnesota, Alexandria, Duluth and International Falls also got a decent soaking.

More weather perfection next week?

I've heard many of you say this is the best summer ever. I have to agree. Even the new Summer Glory Index is off the charts this summer.

Next week's weather will only help the numbers. Highs near 80, lows near 60 and comfortable dew points in the upper 50s? Where do I sign?

Best. Summer. Ever.

Seeley: Record crop yields this year?

Minnesota's crops are also liking the ideal weather this summer. One drive in the country and you can tell crops are having a banner year. Dr. Mark Seeley passes along this nugget from Farm Fest this week.

Most of the climate models favor warm and dry weather for the balance of August after scattered showers this weekend, so that means the stored soil moisture will be greatly utilized by crops as they finish out their growth and maturation. Most of the opinion expressed at FarmFest this week was that Minnesota may have the best crops in the Midwest this year, as a result of an ideal growing season. Many will not be surprised by record yields.

Here's a few additional tidbits from Mark's weekly Weather Talk post.

NASA scientists have determined that drought since 2012 has brought a cumulative loss of precipitation to California that is equivalent to a year's worth, 20 inches.  Even with the current El Nino episode expected to bring above normal precipitation to California this winter, scientists think it will take several years worth of above normal precipitation to recover from the current drought.....read more at...

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/07/150730220033.htm

Typhoon Soudelor in the Western Pacific Ocean was packing winds well over 110 mph and heading towards Taiwan this week.  It had generated sea waves of 30-40 ft.  In the Central Pacific Ocean Tropical Storm Guillermo was expected to track north of Hawaii and perhaps bring showers and strong winds to Maui, along with big waves to the northern coastal areas of that state.

NOAA scientists reported this week that well above normal sea surface temperatures in the northern Pacific Ocean have likely contributed to a record-setting bloom of toxic algae along the Alaskan Coast.  This bloom may have some detrimental impact on marine organisms along the coast.  You can read more about this topic at...

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/event-tracker/record-setting-bloom-toxic-algae-north-pacific

NOAA also released this week a well done teaching module about spatial and temporal climate variations and how they are related to both natural and man-made process.  You can find this at...

https://www.climate.gov/teaching/teaching-essential-principle-4-climate-varies-over-space-and-time-through-both-natural-and

Excerpts from the weekly drought briefing by USDA's Brad Rippey: ".....  The Plains, Midwest, and Northeast remain largely free of drought, but hot, dry conditions have resulted in drought development in parts of the South.  Portions of eastern Texas, which experienced the worst flooding in at least 25 years in late May and early June, received little or no rain during July and have witnessed “flash drought” conditions that have increased stress on pastures and shallow-rooted crops.  In addition, significant drought continues in most areas west of the Rockies....worsening drought in the Northwest led to sharp increases in the coverage of extreme to exceptional drought (D3 to D4) between June 30 and August 4 in Washington (from 0 to 32%); Idaho (6 to 22%); Montana (0 to 14%); and Oregon (34 to 48%)....the Northwestern drought situation was exacerbated by persistent heat; locations such as Salem, Oregon, and Seattle, Washington, experienced not only their hottest July, but also their hottest month on record.  By August 6, nearly three dozen large wildfires, in various stages of containment, were actively burning in the Pacific Coast States. 

NOAA: 90 percent chance of below-average Atlantic hurricane season

As expected, El Niño is suppressing Atlantic hurricane activity. It only takes one good (bad) hurricane to ruin your day though, so coastal residents always have one eye toward the open Atlantic.

Here's more on NOAA's August hurricane update.

The NOAA Climate Prediction Center’s updated2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook calls for a 90 percent chance of a below-normal hurricane season. A below-normal season is now even more likely than predicted in May, when the likelihood of a below-normal season was 70 percent.

“Tropical storms and hurricanes can and do strike the United States, even in below-normal seasons and during El Niño events,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster withNOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “Regardless of our call for below-normal storm activity, people along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts should remain prepared and vigilant, especially now that the peak months of the hurricane season have started.”

Two tropical storms already have struck the United States this year. Ana made landfall in South Carolina in May, and Bill made landfall in Texas in June.

The 90 percent probability of a below-normal season is the highest confidence level given by NOAA since seasonal hurricane outlooks began in 1998.

Forecasters attribute the high likelihood of a below-normal season to three primary factors:

• El Niño has strengthened as predicted, and NOAA’s latest El Niño forecast calls for a significant El Niño to continue through the remainder of the hurricane season;

• Atmospheric conditions typically associated with a significant El Niño, such as strong vertical wind shear and enhanced sinking motion across the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean Sea, are now present. These conditions make it difficult for storms to develop, and they are predicted to continue through the remaining four months of the hurricane season; and

• Tropical Atlantic sea-surface temperatures are predicted to remain below average and much cooler than the rest of the global tropics.

 The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30.

West continues to bake, and burn

Meanwhile on the left coast, drought, heat and fires continue.

Here's more from Climate Central.

The heat across much of the West has done no favors for the deep drought and has helped to fuel a surge in wildfires, which have raged across Alaska, the Pacific Northwest and Northern California in recent weeks.

A deeper dive into the data released Friday by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration shows that both Oregon and Washington were record warm from January through July, while Alaska and California have had their second-warmest year to date. (2015 had been running ahead of the record heat of 2014 for California, but a return to more normal conditions in July has caused it to drop in the rankings.)

Salem and Eugene, Ore., both saw their warmest July on record, while Portland recorded its second warmest, according to the National Weather Service. Eugene saw a record number of days with temperatures that topped 100°Fand on July 31, the town of McMinnville was the same temperature — 106°F — as Phoenix, Ariz., and Las Vegas.

July was the all-time warmest month in Seattle, besting the previous record-holder, August 1967, the NWS said. By July 31, the city had recorded 11 days this year with temperatures above 90°F, which was more than the number of such days during the entire period of 1997 to 2003.

One of the main culprits behind these extended scorching conditions is a large pool of unusually warm Pacific Ocean waters — colloquially termed “the blob” — as well as persistent high-pressure systems that can trap and intensity hot weather. An El Niño has also boosted temperatures, and could help push 2015 to top 2014 as the hottest year on record globally. The background warming of the planet from the excess heat trapped by accumulating greenhouse gases in the atmosphere has also upped the odds of such record-high temperatures.

There is the potential for several of these western states to see their warmest year on record. Oregon is on pace to best its previous hottest year, 1992, currently running about 0.5°F ahead it, Kathie Dello, deputy director of the Oregon Climate Service at Oregon State University, said.

“It's still a bit early to make the call, but all signs point to us finishing at or near the top with El Niño and the blob,” she said in an email. “Put it this way: It definitely won't be record coolest.”

California will be a close call: Above-average temperatures are predicted for the coming months, “which would mean a neck-and-neck race for warmest year on record,” NOAA climatologist Jake Crouch said in an email. “August-December was really warm last year in California, so the rest of 2015 would have to be fairly warm for this year to take the warmest year on record for the state.”