Back to weather reality: October preview this week

It's as if we've awakened from a long mid-summer night's weather dream.

Lately we've enjoyed a long and remarkably stable summer weather pattern with 25 of 26 days featuring highs in the 80s at MSP Airport before last Friday's 2-day heat wave.

• 94 degrees high at MSP Airport Friday (Hottest day of 2015)

• 91 degrees high at MSP Saturday (4th 90 degree day this year)

• 100 degrees highest heat index at MSP Airport Friday

Instant October 

The weather maps look a little scary for late August. An unseasonably powerful wrapped up low pressure system spins into Minnesota by Wednesday. The system brings wind, widespread rainfall and much colder temperatures.

Our inbound weathermaker spreads rainfall across all but northwest Minnesota. Rainfall totals look heavy, with a widespread swath of 1" to 2" likely by late Wednesday. Another free lawn watering.

You'll notice the chilly winds with this system. Feeling a good 50 degrees colder across Minnesota by Wednesday compared to last Friday? That's the Minnesota we all know, and some of us love. Where's did I put that jacket last spring anyway?

Sumner returns Thursday

Vote for Summer. The season that is.

Fear not warm weather enthusiasts, summer returns with a splendid run by Thursday and Friday. We feel the humidity rise again Saturday, and dodge a few thundershowers.

90 at The Fair?

Here's a usually safe prediction. We'll hit 90 degrees at least one day of the Minnesota State Fair run. A typical Minnesota State Fair seems to produce a variety of days in the 80s, a few 70s and a steamy 90-degree day or two.

The longer range outlook suggests a return to warmer temps for the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes.

Here's NOAA's long range 16-day GFS run. Let's see if these trends are in the right direction. One to 3 days pushing 90 at the Fair? Seems about right to me.

Stay tuned, and dig that wind-proof rain jacket out of storage by tomorrow.