Rain forest: Heaviest rains south of metro today
81 degrees -- High temperature at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport Wednesday at 5:29 pm
.90 inch rainfall total in Burnsville with localized downpours Wednesday
.11 inch 0Z NAM model rainfall output for MSP Airport Thursday.
Ever wondered what it's like to live in a rain forest? The past two weeks may be as close as most Minnesotans will get.
Air mass recovery
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Our brief dew point break Wednesday morning was fleeting as expected. Return southerly flow quickly pumped rich tropical moisture back into Minnesota. Dew points quickly recovered from 50 degrees Wednesday morning, to the 70 degree mark Wednesday afternoon in the metro. Watch the dew point skyrocket in the hourly observations from MSP Airport.
Our tropical, moisture-rich air mass is ripe for localized heavy downpours Thursday. The big question: Where? Some recent model trends suggest the heaviest rains could stay south of the metro Thursday morning.
Synopsis
A sluggish warm front oozes north. More scattered thunderstorms with heavy downpours amble across Minnesota.
Warm fronts are famous for getting active at night. By Thursday morning, the highest risk zone for heavy, potentially flooding rains sits south of the Twin Cities toward the Iowa border across southern Minnesota. A second zone of multi-inch rainfall favors northwest Minnesota and the Red River Valley.
Multi-inch totals still look most possible in Minnesota south of the Twin Cities through Northfield, Owatonna and Albert Lea along the Interstate 90 corridor. The Twin Cities lies on the edge of the favored heaviest rainfall zone Thursday.
The best weather science favors rainfall totals of 1 inch or more in southern Minnesota possibly creeping into the (south?) metro. A few recent model trends keep the heavy rain south of the metro Thursday.
I'm still not 100 percent ready to buy int the notion of heavy rainfall in the metro Thursday.
The latest European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts runs suggest the notion of heavy rains Thursday in the metro may be overblown.
The European model is the outlier at this point, but NOAA's models do seem to be backing off a bit on heavy rainfall totals for the metro Thursday. The La Crosse, Wis., National Weather Service shows the trend of favoring heaviest rains in southern Minnesota south of the metro.
We'll see which model has the trend right, but be aware of the potential for local downpours Thursday morning.
Steamy weekend
The weekend still looks steamy and potentially storm at night.
Saturday looks like the hottest day of the bunch. With dew points in the mid 70s and temps near 90, heat index values push the 100-degree mark by late Saturday afternoon. Ugly hot.
Stay tuned.