Summer sky, cool Fourth of July, then 90s likely

Welcome to the heart of summer.

The dog days are still a month away, but July is here in less than a week. Minnesota's summertime blur of events is in full swing. Rock The Garden. Fourth of July weekend. Basilica Block Party. State Fair?

Those do noting in particular weekends at the lake when time seems to stop for a few days?

Priceless.

With weather patterns like this I'm transported back to that magical summer between grade school and middle school. Walking home from a day at the beach with hot tar underfoot. For just a few fleeting days it seems like summer could last forever.

A lazy sun reluctantly dips into a sweaty late evening western sky. Crickets serenade as fireflies glow at dusk.

If only to have an entire summer to call our own once again.

Cooler by the lake: Part II

It's another day of lake breezes near the big lake they call Gitche Gumee. A light persistent northeasterly wind flow pushed a plume of relatively cooler, drier more stable air well inland across central Minnesota Friday afternoon.

The result? A narrow relatively cumulus free northeast to southwest stripe across Minnesota from Duluth through St. Cloud all the way to Pipestone.

Here's another view from NASA's MODIS Terra 1,000 meter resolution image. Notice how the relatively cool waters of Lake Mille Lacs seem to be assisting with cumulus suppression downstream.

I can't recall seeing such a long corridor of lake effect.

An even closer look at localized lake effect on Minnesota's bigger lakes Friday. Notice the cumulus free zones and mini lake breeze fronts with lines of towering cumulus surrounding Leech and Red Lakes.

Miro-scale weather at its finest. All weather truly is local.

Weekend split

Spotty showers roam Minnesota Friday evening.

This weekend favors a split decision. Saturday comes in as the sunnier more summery day for the metro and eastern Minnesota. Scattered showers and thunderstorms cross the state Saturday night and Sunday as a weak summertime Alberta Clipper system sails through.

Rainfall Saturday night into Sunday look relatively spotty and light. Many of us pick up between one-quarter and one-half inch with some locally heavier totals. Typical summertime rainfall distribution. Heavy rains swamp the Ohio Valley.

Here's a more detailed breakdown of the next week. Looks like summer to me.

By the way if you're ever in the neighborhood check out Classic Car Night in Victoria in the southwest metro every other Wednesday this summer. It's a great collection of some sweet rides.

Watch the lightning

Tornadoes get the headlines, but a garden variety thunderstorm with potentially deadly lightning is much more likely to ruin your summer.

Mayfly hatch on Doppler

It's becoming a yearly event. The La Crosse, Wis., National Weather Service office is tracking bug swarms on Doppler emerging from the Mississippi River. Something to do between severe outbreaks.

Cooler than average 4th of July?

The (probably still too) early read on the 4th of July forecast seems to be skewing cool this year. Both the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration' Global Forecast System model and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts output keep Minnesota in northwest flow, and suggest highs in the 70s for the metro with potentially 60s north.

Light sweatshirts at fireworks next Saturday night? At least it keep the bugs at bay. Stay tuned.

Summer heat builds after the Fourth?

NOAA's GFS model has been hinting for several runs now that more frequent episodes of heat and humidity are likely to build after the 4th of July.

This GFS 16-day run has been typical of the notion that a string of days in the upper 80s and 90s is increasingly likely starting around July 7th.

Throw in some dew point invasions into the upper 60s and 70s and your local TV station will probably be leading with heat stories sometime after July 4.

Welcome to July.

Your AC unit gets a work out in the next two weeks. See you in Grand Marais.