Summer hits stride, cooler by the lake

Late June in Minnesota.

There's that one day when you finally feel like summer is here for good. Lakes warming up fast. No threat of a cooling breeze. Sweaters finally in deep slumber in the back of the closet.

Summer kicks into high gear the next week as our string of low 80s become mid-80s and dew points climb into the sticky 60s. That chorus you hear in the neighborhood? The hum of AC units clicking to life. Ice cream shops doing brisk business. The first few booms and screams from fireworks of varying legality.

Summer status quo

This is the time of year when meteorologists get to play Maytag weather repairman. Feet up on the Doppler. No bright red watch boxes overhead. No shrill sounds emanating from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration weather radio. No scary sounding emails to MPR News staff preparing for the next severe outbreak.

Are the Twins winning?

Our forecast looks quiet through Saturday as a bubble of weak high pressure drifts overhead. By Sunday a weak low pressure system drifts in from Canada triggering a few scattered thundershowers. That's how things are with weaker pressure gradients in summer, we call it a weak synoptic pattern.

Meteograms are a nice way to visualize forecast data. I like the Weatherspark output. I choose the model I feel nails the forecast best on any given day. Friday and Saturday look spectacular. Showers are in the vicinity Sunday.

More frequent dew point spikes make humidity more noticeable at times, and a downright muggy air mass hangs around by the middle of next week.

Models are still all over the place for the Fourth of July weekend. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Global Forecast System suggests a cooler air (70s) mass by Friday, July 3. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts suggest showers on July 4.

It's too early to tell with any credibility, so I'll spare you the speculation for now.

Cooler by the lake

In this case, the lake is Lake Superior. I'm looking forward to a visit to the North Shore next week. Late June is prime time for lake breezes as cooler water pushes dense air inland.

The result is not only cooler temperatures, but suppressed cumulus cloud formation as cold air pushing inland kills updrafts that form cumulus clouds. Here's a great example from Thursday's 200-meter-resolution MODIS Terra visible shot.

The Duluth office of the National Weather Service picked up these cool lake breeze fronts on Doppler Wednesday.

Seeley: Near average June temps? Crops thriving

Imagine that. A month with near average temperatures. Abundant rainfall and warm weather has crops in great shape across Minnesota. You can read more in Mark Seeley's excellent Weather Talk blog posted Friday mornings. Here's a preview exclusive to MPR Updraft readers. Listen for Mark and Cathy Wurzer at 6:45 a.m. Friday on MPR News stations.

Topic: Preliminary June Climate Summary

With just a few days left in the month it looks like most observers will report mean monthly temperatures that are plus or minus with 1°F of normal. Extremes for the month ranged from 99°F at Madison (Lac Qui Parle County) and other western Minnesota communities on the 9th to just 25°F at Embarrass and Brimson on the 1st. Dew points generally remained in the comfortable range except for 2-3 days when values approached the 70°F mark, raising the Heat Index.

Rainfall was variable around the state during June. Some areas of north-central and northeastern Minnesota received below normal rainfall, but many other areas of the state saw above normal rainfall. Some of the wetter than normal reports from observers included:

5.07" at Twin Valley

5.22" at Bemidji

7.65" at Melrose

5.33" at Windom

7.56" at Albert Lea

6,16" at Owatonna

6.85" at Waseca

5.40" at Springfield

6.94" at Austin

5.22" at Zumbrota

6.47" at Theilman

In addition, large hail (1" diameter or greater) occurred on June 2, 7, 9, 19, and 21 in scattered locations around the state, and damaging winds (wind gusts over 50 mph) were reported by some observers on five other dates during the month.

Overall, it was a good month for Minnesota crops, with 89 percent of the state reporting adequate to surplus soil moisture conditions. Harvest conditions were generally good for the 1st crop of alfalfa and reports from the field showed 80 percent of the state's corn crop in good to excellent condtion, and 76 percent of the soybean crop in good to excellent condition.