Heaviest 2- to 4-inch rains south; metro rain all day
Radars are glowing green and yellow today as expected from the Twin Cities southward. Overnight and morning forecast model and radar trends support keeping the heaviest (flooding) rain zone south and east of the Twin Cities.
It's an all-day rain in the metro today, but we likely dodge the bullet on significant flooding in the northern/western suburbs and metro core.
The southern metro could see 2 inches or more rainfall totals by tonight; that's borderline for some (minor) flash flooding. Southern Minnesota likely picks up 2 inches to 4 inches-plus totals by morning. That's where the flash flood threat remains highest.
The big picture? It's June in Minnesota. Heavy, soaking, even flooding rains are becoming a regular feature of early summer according to climate experts like Mark Seeley and Peter Snyder. Welcome to the new normal.
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Here's the latest on the flash flood threat for southern Minnesota.
Flash flood watch text
Latest Twin Cities radar loop
The flood focusing topography of many southeast Minnesota creeks and rivers won't help matters. Here's the view from the La Crosse, Wis., National Weather Service.
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FARIBAULT...MANKATO...WASECA...OWATONNA...FAIRMONT...BLUE EARTH...ALBERT LEA
320 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2015
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR
* A PORTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...BLUE EARTH...FARIBAULT...FREEBORN...MARTIN...RICE...STEELE AND WASECA.
* FROM 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING
* HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS REACHING 4 INCHES POSSIBLE.
* RUNOFF FROM EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO RAPID RISES ON AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS ALONG WITH PONDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING AREAS.
The system keeps radars busy through today. Here's the future radar timeline from the Twin Cities weather service. Again, note the heaviest rain bands focused south of the metro.
Here's another updated look at projected rainfall totals. I'm not buying into the outlier models like the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's North American Mesoscale Forecast System model that cranked out 4-inch-plus totals for the metro. The heaviest rain zone still favors southeast Minnesota.
The weather culprit: a low-pressure center tracking east through Iowa today. Skies clear and the forecast improves as we head into the weekend.
Too early to start thinking about the weekend? Never. Drier skies prevail Friday and Saturday. Another chance for rain rolls in late Saturday night into Sunday.
