Dry spell after a good midweek soaking; thunderstorms Saturday

A good soaking rain dumped over two inches of welcome moisture on Litchfield in central Minnesota on Wednesday.  St. Cloud picked up more than an inch (1.24), with just shy of an inch (0.94) in St. Paul on the campus of the University of Minnesota.

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Wednesday rainfall totals. Image:Midwest Regional Climate Center

Elsewhere, less than a quarter-inch of rain (0.23) was measured at Duluth, with only 0.06 inches in Rochester. Rain bypassed Alexandria.  But plenty of rain has fallen in the last month on the previously parched regions of central Minnesota.

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Image:Midwest Regional Climate Center

We are still looking for a jump start to the meteorological summer. Temperatures, overall,  have been a little below normal for about the last month.

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Image:Midwest Regional Climate Center

The lack of temperatures in the 80s, along with moderately high dew points, has kept the upper Midwest relatively quiet when it comes to severe weather. Heat and humidity are important ingredients in cooking up a batch of thunderstorms.

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Storms tonight could produce large hail across a broad area of the central part of the nation, as depicted in this graphic from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Storm Prediction Center.

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Chance for large hail tonight. Storm Prediction Center

The threat for severe storms drifts north as we move toward the weekend.

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Severe weather outlook for Saturday.

Friday looks to be dry with seasonal temperatures and a mix of clouds and sunshine.  But moisture gathers on Saturday and may initiate a plan B for outdoor graduation parties.  High temperatures will be mainly be in the 70s.

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The  North American Model from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration shows a cluster of thunderstorms parading across the state on Saturday.  This image paints the area most likely to receive heavy rain (yellow and red colors) in the afternoon.  Although, watching the models the past couple of weeks, the "sweet spot" for heavy rain often shifts as we get closer to the event.

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Precipitation from NAM early Saturday afternoon.

It wouldn't be a bad idea to consider lightning safety rules.

Lightning can reach out several miles from the approaching rain storm. Just because the rain hasn't commenced, doesn't mean lightning is not a risk.  The National Weather Service mantra is: "When thunder roars, stay indoors."

Looking ahead into next week, our neck of the woods appears to be sandwiched between warmer than normal temperatures.  The normal high temperature for June 11 in the Twin Cities is 76 degrees. I'm fine with normal for now.

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