Taste of summer, rain returns Thursday night

Minnesotans wait for it all year.

Hazy sunshine. Temperatures in the 80s. Packed patio dining. Prime people watching at Lake Calhoun. The Twins in first place?

Our collective summer weather daydream continues one more day before the rains return.

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Summery day at Deer Run Golf Club in Victoria. Paul Huttner/MPR News

Warmest day of 2015 so far

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Call it spring's final weather exam. The mercury nudged 84 degrees at MSP Airport Wednesday afternoon. That matches the warmest day so far this year when we hit 84 on April Fool's Day.

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Twin Cities NWS via Stanwyck Avionics

We grab one more day of 80 degree sunshine before the next low pressure system drags a cold front our way by Friday morning. Scattered showers and thunderstorms ride the advancing frontal boundary from west to east Thursday. The Twin Cities will probably squeak out another warm and mostly dry Thursday, before showers and thunderstorms move in Thursday night.

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NOAA

Soaking rains are likely once again with our inbound frontal system. Rainfall totals of an inch or more look probable over southern Minnesota by midday Friday. Here's NOAA's 48-hour rainfall output.

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NOAA

September weekend

Skies dry this weekend as a cooler Canadian breeze blows in. Highs in the 60s come with plenty of sunshine and very comfy dew points. Enjoy it. This could be that last 'low humidity' weekend for a while.

Bonfire anyone?

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Weatherspark - GFS output

NOAA: Quiet hurricane season

It's my favorite time of year. Virtually useless seasonal hurricane forecasts come spewing forth from NOAA and CSU among others.

Let's give credit where it's due; NOAA has done an excellent job with refining short term hurricane forecasts and warnings. That said, I've written many times about what I feel is the clear lack of value, and abysmal track record of these forecasts. Even if they are close on seasonal numbers in a good year, these forecasts tell us nothing about the most probable landfall locations. That would be valuable information for homeowners, local emergency managers, the insurance industry, and retailers. Even in a quiet hurricane season with a low overall number of tropical cyclones, it only takes one 'Andrew' to ruin your decade.

With my annual seasonal hurricane forecast rant behind us, here's what NOAA has to say about the 2015 Atlantic Hurricane season.

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center says the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season will likely be below-normal, but that’s no reason to believe coastal areas will have it easy.

NOAA hurricane Outlook_2015_FINAL

For the hurricane season, which officially runs from June 1 - November 30, NOAA is predicting a 70 percent likelihood of 6 to 11 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 3 to 6 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including zero to 2 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher). While a below-normal season is likely (70 percent), there is also a 20 percent chance of a near-normal season, and a 10 percent chance of an above-normal season.

“A below-normal season doesn’t mean we’re off the hook. As we’ve seen before, below-normal seasons can still produce catastrophic impacts to communities,” said NOAA Administrator Kathryn Sullivan, Ph.D., referring to the 1992 season in which only seven named storms formed, yet the first was Andrew – a Category 5 Major Hurricane that devastated South Florida.

“The main factor expected to suppress the hurricane season this year is El Niño, which is already affecting wind and pressure patterns, and is forecast to last through the hurricane season,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “El Niño may also intensify as the season progresses, and is expected to have its greatest influence during the peak months of the season. We also expect sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic to be close to normal, whereas warmer waters would have supported storm development.”

New this year: Surge warnings

One innovation this year are new hurricane surge warnings from NOAA. This could be a positive step forward in communicating storm surge risk. Do you know how many feet you live (or vacation) above sea level?

With the new hurricane season comes a new prototype storm surge watch/warning graphic from NOAA’s National Hurricane Center, intended to highlight areas along the Gulf and Atlantic coasts of the United States that have a significant risk of life-threatening inundation by storm surge from a tropical cyclone.

The new graphic will introduce the concept of a watch or warning specific to the storm surge hazard. Storm surge is often the greatest threat to life and property from a tropical cyclone, and it can occur at different times and at different locations from a storm’s hazardous winds. In addition, while most coastal residents can remain in their homes and be safe from a tropical cyclone’s winds, evacuations are often needed to keep people safe from storm surge. Having separate warnings for these two hazards should provide emergency managers, the media, and the general public better guidance on the hazards they face when tropical cyclones threaten.

NOAA surge warning

The 2015 Atlantic hurricane season begins on Monday.