Frost advisory, warming trend this week

Mom was always right.

Among mom's most classic advice and admonitions?  "Would you jump off a bridge just because somebody else did it?" And "Wait until Memorial Day weekend to plant those petunias and geraniums!"

Thanks, mom.

Freeze warnings and frost advisories are flying into Tuesday morning for a big chunk of the Upper Midwest. Temperatures drop below freezing in the Red River Valley, and frost will nip as close to the Twin Cities as the far western metro suburbs Tuesday morning.

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One more cold Canadian air mass funnels south this week. It's a shocking reminder that the only physical obstruction between Minnesota and the North Pole is a barbed wire fence at the Canadian border. One more big blue "H" dives south on the weather maps this week.

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NOAA

Here's a look at temperatures early Tuesday morning. The coldest, sub-freezing temperatures occur where skies clear in the eastern Dakotas and western Minnesota.

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NOAA

Frost warnings include St. Cloud and most of west central Minnesota.

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALEXANDRIA...LONG PRAIRIE...LITTLE FALLS...MORRIS...GLENWOOD...ST.CLOUD...FOLEY...MADISON...BENSON...MONTEVIDEO...WILLMAR...GRANITE FALLS

318 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN HAS ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT TUESDAY.

* TEMPERATURE...31 TO 34.

* WIND...NORTHWEST WIND WILL DIMINISH TO 5 TO 10 MPH LATE.

* IMPACTS...AREAS OF FROST ARE LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH 8 AM TUESDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT FROST IS POSSIBLE. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED.

Moderating trend this week

The inbound high pressure system clears our skies, and sunshine returns this week. That helps temperatures moderate. A dry and increasingly milder forecast kicks in as the week unfolds.

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Weatherspark

"Typical" Memorial Day weekend

The typical Memorial Day weekend in Minnesota? A 50/50 mix of anticipation and disappointment.

Climatologically speaking, Memorial Day weekend is the wettest of the "Big 3" summer holiday weekends. It also has the best chance of severe weather. The statistical peak of severe weather season as defined by the number of severe weather reports flowing into the Twin Cities National Weather Service falls in June between Memorial Day and the Fourth of July.

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Twin Cities NWS

Stormy days begin to fall rapidly as we move into mid and late summer. Yes, Labor Day is often your best bet for tranquil summer holiday weather in Minnesota.

True to form, this weekend looks like a mix of decent outdoor weather, and rainy hours. My weather advice? Front load the weekend and include Friday if possible. That looks like the best day of the upcoming weekend zone.

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Weatherspark-Euro (ECMWF) output