Tuesday bluster; Illinois tornado’s long track

Spring in Minnesota is like a twisted foxtrot. Two steps forward. One step back.

Our March relapse lasts another day today, as bitter winds and snow showers turn to rain over eastern Minnesota. It could be worse. Yes, weather fans, that's a fresh coating of light snow on the streets of Ely this morning.

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Sheridan Street in Ely this morning. elyminnesota.com

Stratus Quo

Most of eastern Minnesota and Wisconsin still swirls under a vast gray wrap around stratus deck from a stalled Hudson Bay low. That means more snow showers in northern Minnesota. High  pressure noses south tomorrow with a clearing trend.

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NOAA

Yes, you'll reach for the winter jacket one more time today.

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Here's a look at the persistent northwest wind flow pumping in another brisk day with wind chills in the 20s and 30s across Minnesota.

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NOAA

Our weather mellows as the week moves on. We start with more sun and less wind tomorrow.

Temps slowly moderate as the stronger late April sun works to modify the Canadian air mass overhead. The sun tomorrow is as high in the sky as it is on Aug. 20. The modified air mass should support 60 degrees by Sunday.

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Weatherspark

Long track Fairdale tornado

There have been a couple of tornado swarms this spring. Most notably the cluster that hit northern Illinois earlier this month. The Fairdale, Ill., tornado on April 9 was a "long track" tornado, on the ground for 39 miles and 41 minutes. It was a forecasting success story, with as much as an hour lead time on the tornado warning, and days on the risk zone for severe storms.

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Chicago NWS

RATING: EF-4

ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 200 MPH

PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: 30.2 MILES

PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 700 YARDS

FATALITIES: 2

INJURIES: 22

START DATE:APRIL 09 2015

START TIME:6:39 PM CDT

START LOCATION:0.9 MILES NE FRANKLIN GROVE

START LAT/LON: 41.8530/-89.2896

END DATE:APRIL 09 2015

END TIME:7:20 PM CDT

END LOCATION:5 NNW KIRKLAND

END LAT/LON: 42.1623/-88.8792

THIS LONG TRACKED VIOLENT TORNADO DESTROYED NUMEROUS HOMES AND FARMSTEADS...AS WELL AS TOSSED VEHICLES...ALONG ITS PATH FROM NORTH CENTRAL LEE COUNTY ACROSS EASTERN OGLE...NORTHWEST DEKALB...INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN BOONE COUNTY. THIS INCLUDED ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST SIDE OF ROCHELLE...ACROSS INTERSTATE 39...AND DIRECTLY THROUGH FAIRDALE.

Minnesota: Edge of tornado alley

Many of our Minnesota tornadoes skip along the ground for just a few minutes, so it can be hard to get a warning out quickly.

We know Minnesota is not in the heart of tornado alley, but a study from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Storm Prediction Center of long track EF3-EF5 tornadoes does show mini tornado frequency clusters within Minnesota.

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A map showing the frequency of F3 to F5 tornadoes with The lower Mississippi Valley is the most active region fo of long path F3 to F5 tornadoes. Other active areas are n northwest Georgia and eastern North Carolina. A large mi at least 25 mile tracks from 1880 to 2003 normalized to 1,000 square miles. Contours are 2, 6, 10, 14 and 18. llowed by the Great Plains. South-central Mississippi and northern Mississippi have the highest frequencies orthern Alabama, central to northeast Oklahoma, southeast Nebraska, northeast Arkansas, northeast Kansas, nimum extends north northeastward from southeast Oklahoma through Missouri, eastern Iowa into Wisconsin. NOAA
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NOAA

Quiet severe season so far

In spite of the Illinois outbreak, this has thankfully been another quiet tornado season so far. At 137 so far, 2015 tornado numbers are still running well below the 10 years average.

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NOAA

Right now I don't see any severe potential on the horizon for Minnesota.

Stay tuned.