Thursday soaker, warmest Target Field opener Monday?
Into each life some rain must fall. - Henry Wadsworth Longfellow
Longfellow had it right. Weather is often a good metaphor for life. Over the years when I am asked to sign autographs for TV and radio weather fans I often wish them "sunny days." Of course too many sunny days can be a bad thing. Just ask a Californian.
Waves of much needed rainfall roll across Minnesota Thursday. We'll take the moisture. Most of Minnesota still needs anywhere from 2 to 5 inches of rainfall to recover from a drought that began last fall.
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Local climate experts like Peter Snyder and Mark Seeley at the University of Minnesota have identified a trend that's occurring in Minnesota seasons over the past decade plus. Our springs are getting wetter, and late summer and fall is trending much drier.
It's not a subtle shift. For some reason, the springtime low-level jet stream winds at about 5,000 feet above ground are getting stronger and delivering heavier rains to Minnesota in May and June. Then it's as if somebody at a fictional Minnesota Climate Control Central is throwing a switch in mid-summer that shuts off the storms and rainfall in July. We plunge rapidly into drought in late summer and fall.
Flash flood to flash drought. All or nothing. A still not fully understood sign of a changing climate? Quite possibly.
I'll celebrate the rainfall Thursday and resist the temptation to complain about another gray April sky. Thank you Mr. Longfellow.
Spring storm
Our inbound spring storm system is pretty classic. Low pressure tracks south of Minnesota Thursday, throwing a widespread rain shield over the Midwest. High pressure dives south Friday to scour out skies and deliver some welcome sunshine.
The heaviest rains fall over Missouri and Illinois with some multi-inch totals. But a decent soaking clips southern Minnesota, with some 1-inch totals for La Crosse and Rochester. The most likely totals for the Twin Cities seem to be in the half- to 1-inch range.
This system produces a case of the severe weather nasties in the central Plains. Chicago and much of central Illinois and Indiana will need to be on alert Thursday as the system shifts eastward. Multiple risk zones, tornado and severe thunderstorms watch boxes make for a (too?) busy National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Storm Prediction Center activity chart this week.
Fire and ice
Not in the severe weather risk zone? How about being stuck in a ship on eastern Lake Superior in a massive ice jam? Persistent westerly winds the past few days have jammed up massive ice chunks on the eastern end of the big lake.
NPR has more on how the US Coast Guard is working to clear a lane for early spring shipping.
Sunshine alert
Our weather pattern shows rays of hope for sunshine ahead. Friday afternoon, most of Saturday and Monday look sunny right now. That's welcome news to many. Six of eight days so far in April have featured mostly cloudy to cloudy skies at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport.
The European Center for Medium-Range Forecasts model is optimistic about our chances for more sunshine and warmer weather ahead.
If the Euro is right about Monday's high temperature of 69 degrees, it would be the warmest opening day so far at Target Field.
The inaugural season of 2010 saw 68 degrees. Last year, it hit 60 on opening day. Here's a longer look at Twins opening day weather history from the Minnesota Climate Working Group.
A shot at 80 next week?
NOAA's Global Forecast System model seems to be handling the week 2 forecast better than the Euro as of late. The GFS suggests a warm and partly thundery week next week. Another shot at 80 degrees by next Thursday?
Stay tuned.