Friday showers, 70s next week? Chile volcano dazzles

Spring in Minnesota is like running up the down escalator. You get there, but it takes longer than you think. If you stop running, you go backwards for a little bit.

Two steps forward, one step back. Two more steps forward. Finally spring.

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Crab apples in bloom. UM landscape Arboretum

Our spring weather foxtrot is ready to take a few more steps forward. Warmer days are on the horizon, as a chilly Canadian air mass shifts east this weekend.

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The next low pressure wave Friday brings a shot of AM snowflakes changing to rain showers across Minnesota.

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The inbound low pressure wave slides south of Minnesota once again. This one comes close enough to put us in the precip shield Friday, before high pressure clears skies this weekend.

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NOAA

Here's a more detailed look at the hours heading into the weekend. Friday's showers give way to a clearing trend Saturday. Sunday afternoon the mercury pushes 60 degrees once again.

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Weatherspark- NOAA GFS output

Seeley: Gales of April

It's not your imagination. It really has been windy this month. April is our windiest month of the year on average. This April takes the concept of windy to a new level. UM climate professor Dr. Mark Seeley quantifies in this week's Weather Talk. Here's a preview.

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Topic: Windy April

 As we have reported before, April is generally the windiest month of the year based on climate history from most Minnesota communities.  But, April of this year has been particularly windy, with average wind speeds above the historical average, as well as a high frequency of wind gusts over 30 mph.  Here is a list of average wind speeds and frequency of gusts over 30 mph for selected cities across the state:

Location        Ave Wind Speed for April

2015       Number of days wind has gusted above 30mph

  • MSP                        12.3 mph                           9 days (peak of 46 mph on the 2nd)

  • Rochester                  14.4 mph                          14 days (peak of 47 mph on the 1st)

  • St Cloud                   11.5 mph                           8 days (peak of 49 mph on the 2nd)

  • Duluth                     12.4 mph                          10 days (peak of 58 mph on the 2nd)

  • International Falls         9.2 mph                           5 days (peak of 43 mph on the 13th)

  • Alexandria                 14.1 mph                          12 days (peak of 49 mph on the 2nd)

  • Redwood Falls              12.8 mph                          16 days (peak of 55 mph on the 1st)

  • Mankato                    13.9 mph                          15 days (peak of 45 mph on the 1st)

  • Fargo-Moorhead             14.3 mph                          12 days (peak of 54 mph on the 2nd)

  • Hallock                    13.1 mph                          11 days (peak of 62 mph on the 15th)

  • Crookston                  14.0 mph                          11 days (peak of 47 mph on the 13th)

  • Morris                     14.5 mph                          15 days (peak of 52 mph on the 13th)

  • Worthington                14.6 mph                          14 days (peak of 48 mph on the 1st)

 As a result of the windy month many weather observers as well as farmers have reported seeing blown soil accumulate in drainage ditches across the rural landscape.  Hopefully winds will diminish for the peak of the crop planting season which is coming up soon.

Warmer next week, 70s return?

It's been interesting watching the Euro model performance the past few weeks. The Euro has had some clunkers, predicting phantom waves of snow that never materialized. Now it's locked onto a much warmer solution next week, with a return to temps well into the 70s for the Twin Cities and southern Minnesota. The GFS has come into agreement the past few runs. That gives a higher confidence that 60s and possibly 70s will return next week.

Here's the latest Euro output. If it verifies, next week could be the finest week of spring so far. Cue the apple blossoms.

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Weatherspark- European (ECMWF) output

NOAA GFS Model has come into agreement with the notion of 70s late next week, and continues to advertise stormy weather around May 5-6.

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NOAA via IPS Meteostar

Chile volcano eruption

At least we don't have to forecast this in Minnesota. Chile's Calbuco volcano erupted for the first time in 42 years this week. It's too early to say if the eruption is a climatic scale event, but the amazingly impressive and visual ash plume has reached 12 miles up into the atmosphere. Lightning flashes accompany the rising cloud.

Here's more from the Washington Post.

Billows of ash illuminated by the setting sun painted the sky red on Wednesday after the Calbuco volcano in southern Chile erupted for the first time in more than 42 years.

The eruption caught authorities off guard. Chile’s National Mining and and Geology Service issued a high alert and ordered the evacuation of 1,500 inhabitants of the nearby town of Ensenada, reports the Associated Press.

“For us it was a surprise,” Alejandro Verges, regional emergency director told the AP.

“This is clearly a much larger eruption than the one we saw with the Villarica some weeks ago,” Interior and Security Minister Rodrido Penailillo also told the AP, “and therefore we need to take bigger and faster measures.”

The 6,500 foot volcano lies about 620 miles south of Chile’s capital Santiago and near the cities of Puerto Varas and Puerto Montt. Calbuco last erupted in 1972 and is thought to be one of the three most potentially dangerous of Chile’s 90 active volcanos. But the Calbuco was not under observation, Verges told the AP.