Statewide tornado drill; weekend soaker

It usually goes something like this.

You knew it would storm today. Every Minnesotan worth their salt knows when a storm is coming. You can't get through the checkout line at Cub or Byerly's without hearing about the next big storm on the way.

Watch. Warning. Dark sky. Lightning flash. Boom. Sheets of rain. Gust front. Siren?

Suddenly the ferocity of the wind reaches that critical point where trees start to snap and you start yelling to everyone in the house, "Get in the basement!"

Guess what? You're already too late.

If it was the derecho downburst with 100 miles per hour winds, or the EF4 tornado that always happens somewhere else you'd be on the way to the hospital, or worse.

When was the last time you scurried to the basement at the last second? The Joplin, Mo., National Weather Service found that too many people ignored far too many warning signals before seeking shelter.

The result? 158 deaths in a few minutes. Tornado watches, warnings, social media alerts, calls from neighbors, TV and radio warnings, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration weather radio alerts and sirens all went unheeded by some.

Siren fatigue? Probably. We still see too many "Doppler indicated" tornado warnings that (thankfully) fail to produce a tornado. The NWS is working on reducing false alarms. Dual polarization Doppler may help.

The bottom line? There's plenty of warning out there.

Your job in severe weather?  Detect the signal from the noise. Know your county and program your NOAA Weather Radio. Identify and prepare the safe room in your home. Stay situationally aware. Be proactive.

Is it really that embarrassing to spend an extra 15 minutes in the basement or other shelter to make sure the storm passes without you and your loved ones in harm's way?

Statewide tornado drill 

Here's the scoop on today's statewide tornado drill from the Minnesota Department of Health. Use the day to prepare your severe weather action plan. Talk to your family. Five minutes of preparation today may save somebody's life tomorrow.

On Thursday April 16, 2015 simulated tornado watches and warnings will be issued to test the statewide warning and communications systems. All counties in Minnesota normally participate in the first drill at 1:45 p.m. unless actual severe weather is expected. The schedule is as follows:

1:00 p.m.  All six weather National Weather Service offices that serve Minnesota will issue a simulated tornado watch (TOA).  NOAA Weather Radios will activate with the real TOA code.

1:45 p.m.  The National Weather Service will issue a simulated tornado warning (TOR) for Minnesota counties. Note that most cities and counties will activate outdoor warning siren systems. NOAA Weather Radios will activate with the real TOR code.

2:00 p.m. The National Weather Service will issue an "End of Test" message using the Severe Weather Statement product.  No alarm on weather radio.

6:55 pm.  The National Weather Service offices will issue another simulated tornado warning (TOR).  NOAA Weather Radios will activate with the real TOR code.

7:10 pm.  The National Weather Service will issue an "End of Test" message using the Severe Weather Statement product.  No alarm on weather radio.

More on severe weather

Monday — Alerts and Warnings

Tuesday — Severe Weather, Lightning and Hail

Wednesday — Floods

Thursday — Tornadoes (with statewide tornado drills)

Friday — Extreme Heat

Forecast: Status quo

Our dry, mild weather winning streak continues through Friday across Minnesota. A slowly spinning low pressure system drops rain in the High Plains and edges toward Minnesota this weekend.

It's looking more likely that a (much needed) good soaking rain is headed for Minnesota later Saturday through Sunday. Yes, the timing could be better. I'm just your humble weather messenger.

Here's NOAA's Global Forecast System version of events. Rain showers may hold off for most of Saturday, then waves of showers ride in on the approaching low.

The models are bullish on widespread rainfall totals of more than a half inch across Minnesota this weekend.

Get out and enjoy the next two days!