Watching Tuesday night mix, April Fools’ mega storm?

So...you wanna be a meteorologist huh?

I am gratified by the large number of you I meet who utter some form of the phrase, "I wish I did what you do for a living. I always wanted to be a meteorologist!"

I've literally heard it well over a hundred times.

It's good to know so many weather savvy Minnesotans find weather science and forecasting so fascinating that you would consider devoting a career to it. It helps me remember how fortunate I am to do what I truly love for a living.

Still you may not realize synoptic and broadcast meteorology is not always as glamorous as it seems. Many times forecasting weather is like making sausage; if you like it, you don't want to see how it's made. Don't try this at home? It's not as easy as it looks.

Case in point? Sunday night's high-degree-of-difficulty snow system with a 15-mile-wide band of 6 to 12 inches of snow buzzing the south Twin Cities metro area, and a whole lotta nothing in the north metro.

The accurate snowfall forecast for the greater Twin Cities area? Literally a snowfall range of zero to 10 inches. The reality? That's more common with winter and spring storms than you think.

The next week presents two more forecast challenges that may leave local meteorologists pulling out what rapidly graying hair they have left. Oh, and did I mention one of our main forecast models, the Global Forecast System, just had a major overhaul and really has no track record with highly volatile spring weather systems in Minnesota?

Get ready for an interesting and potentially bumpy forecast ride ahead.

Buckle up.

Helpful precipitation

Sunday's slop storm was well placed over now droughty Minnesota. A good swath of half an inch to 1 inch of liquid fell from the south metro southeast to Rochester and beyond. Some will soak into the top few inches of now thawed topsoil as it melts. Some will run off into rivers and creeks. We'll take it.

Next system Tuesday night

The next weather maker for Minnesota arrives Tuesday night. A two-headed low pressure monster with temperatures straddling the freezing line. How special.

Two main forecast questions.

1. Will the southern or northern low will generate most of the storm's energy?

2. How long will temperatures in the lowest mile keep precipitation rain before changing to all snow Tuesday night?

The smartest money at this point looks like rain changing to sleet and snow Tuesday night for the metro and a good chunk of eastern Minnesota once again.

Sunshine returns later this week as temperatures gradually warm into the upcoming weekend.

Cruel April Fools' weather joke, or mega-storm reality?

Meteorologists don't pay too much attention to a specific daily forecast more than a week out. It's usually a fool's errand. This one may be an April Fools' errand.

Looking at the maps for next week today caught my eye and made me smile. I hope I'm still smiling April 1.

Check out the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model output for April 1.

Actually both the GFS and Euro maps are spinning up a potential strong storm for the middle of next week. The big question a week out is always is this weather fantasy or potential wet snowy weather fact? From near 70 degrees Tuesday to heavy snow next Wednesday?

The Euro model is cranking out an incredible 63.8 mm of liquid precipitation for the metro next Wednesday. That translates to 2.51 inches of liquid for metrically challenged Americans. If most of that is snow, we would be talking about a foot plus.

Insert gulp here.

This may be weather model fantasy more than a week out. But keep an eye on forecast over the next week. The Euro model is widely considered to be the best numerical weather forecast model on the planet. Let's see if it's really even close to that good.

Now please excuse me while I go yank out the few remaining gray hairs I have left.