Springtastic Tuesday, thunder threat Wednesday

Bright warm sunshine. Light winds. Afternoon temperatures in the 60s. Get ready for one of the finest weather days of Spring 2015 Tuesday. Spring takes a firm hold on Minnesota this week.

  • 49 degrees: Average high temperature at MSP Tuesday

  • 61 degrees: Forecast high temperature at MSP Tuesday

  • +12 degrees: Temperature vs. average on the last day of March

  • +3 to +4 degrees vs. average: Likely final March monthly average temperature at MSP

330 MaxT2_uppermissvly (1)
NOAA

Early spring

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There's no doubt about it at this point. Spring is here much earlier than the past two years. One graphic pretty much tells the story. Here's a comparison of snow cover across Minnesota on March 30 for the past three years.

330 2013 March snow depth
330 2014 sd
330 2015 sd

Our transition to April this year is warm and potentially bumpy. A spectacular spring Tuesday gives way to a warm and thundery Wednesday. Thursday brings cooler breezes, but even cold fronts now still bring above average temperatures.

330 msp2

Wednesday's low pressure system grabs hold of moisture and triggers rainfall as it passes over Minnesota. A warm breezy start should lead to towering cumulus clouds overhead by lunchtime. Its going to be touch and go to see if storms blossom right over the metro, or just off to the east.

330 2allfcsts_loop_ndfd (1)
NOAA

There should be enough instability to trigger a few borderline severe storms capable of high winds and hail Wednesday afternoon. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center assesses the risk area.

I'll call the risk for storm in the metro and southern Minnesota slight for Wednesday afternoon.

Bottom line? Severe weather is possible. Stay situationally aware for rapidly developing storms that could contain downpours, hail and high winds. Severe weather watches and warnings are possible Wednesday afternoon.

Lake Wobegon forecast: Above average

Even with our late week cool down, temperatures run generally warmer than average for this time of year through the weekend.

330 kky2
Weatherspark

Play Ball! Twins home opener on the horizon

A sure sign of spring in Minnesota? The Twins home opener is just two weeks away. The forecast will probably change three or four times between now and then. But the early indications from NOAA's Global Forecast System model hints at a potentially warm and sunny opening day in the 70s for April 13.

330 16 2
NOAA via IPS Meteostar

For now it appears temperatures favor a warm bias from Minnesota southward through the first half of April.

330 814temp.new
NOAA

We'll probably see a cool bump here and there, but all indications continue to support my assessment that spring has sprung early in Minnesota this year.