Spring fling: 70, thunder and severe risk Wednesday

March, meet April.

March eases out like a lamb this year. This week's air mass runs a good 10 to 20 degrees warmer than the average high of 50 degrees for the turn of April. That's pretty remarkable considering snow is still a threat here well into April. Or May.

We average 2.4 inches of snowfall in April in the metro. This is the time of year when we can see anything from 80 degrees to a foot of snow. Not this year.

Yes this week's forecast includes both bright sunny days, and thunderstorms. Welcome to spring in Minnesota. Forrest Gump's box of weather chocolates. Minnesota's atmospheric version of Amen Corner. Minnesota is the "Masters of weather" after all.

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I removed the snow stakes from the Weather Lab driveway Sunday. What could possibly go wrong?

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Out like a lamb

March eases out this year on mild breezes. The forecast for this week is more warm front than the wintry hangover of the past two springs. A milder flow leads to an approaching low pressure system from the west Wednesday.

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NOAA

Minnesota works into the warm sector of the system Wednesday. Temps in the 70s and a wedge of dew points in the 50s will trigger scattered thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Storm Prediction Center has included southern Minnesota in a severe weather risk zone for the first time this year.

A few of the storms Wednesday afternoon could approach severe limits (58 miles per hour winds, 1 inch diameter hail) from the metro south. Gusty winds and hail are the primary threats with Wednesday's storms.

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NOAA's Storm Prediction Center

Temperatures peak Wednesday near 70 degrees in the metro with 60s all the way north to the Canadian border. No fooling.

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NOAA

The temperature roller coaster dips to average late this week. But temps push 60s again next Sunday and Monday.

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Weatherspark

Long range: Maypril

The next two weeks show potential for some significant warm spells. I still think this spring will be much earlier and warmer than the past two years.

I can see several more days in the 60s, a few 70s and even a shot at 80 degrees in the next two weeks. Another surge of warmth brings temperatures 10 to 20 degrees warmer than average by next Monday over the Midwest according to output from NOAA's Global Forecast System model, via Climate Reanalyzer.

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Climate Reanalyzer

Here's a look ta NOAA's 16-day output for the metro. A shot at 80 degrees by around April 14? Place your bets.

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NOAA via IPS Meteostar

All indications are spring is ready to stick around this year.