Growing drought fuels high wildfire risk

Dry grass stands tall in the prairies of southern Minnesota this March. Our lack of snowfall this winter means the grass is exposed to dry winds and ready to burn. That's why the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources is concerned about high fire danger and an early and active fire season this spring.

Fire danger is rated as high from the metro into southeast Minnesota, and very high in southwest Minnesota.

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Minnesota DNR

Here's this week's fire risk update from the Minnesota DNR.

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With the recent warm weather, Minnesota Department of Natural Resources fire behavior analysts are predicting an early start to the spring fire season.

Predicted temperatures this week in the 40s and 50s will likely take care of what little snowpack the state had this winter. Plus, forecasts for the next two weeks show mild temperatures and a dry weather pattern. Minnesota also had a relatively dry fall and very little snow this winter. All of this points toward abnormally dry conditions in early spring.

In addition to predicting an early start to the spring fire season, fire behavior analysts say that based on past weather patterns and fire occurrence, Minnesota will likely have an average to above average number of fires this spring. Without the snow compaction, grass fires will move faster and be more intense. And, with dry conditions, Minnesota could face fire mop-up and peat fire issues.

Snow drought continues

The lack of winter snow and snow cover has allowed brush that was already dry last fall to dry out even further this spring. You have to go north of a Grand Forks, N.D., to Duluth, Minn., line to find any meaningful snow cover these days.

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NOAA

Our warm dry March so far continues trends established last fall. In fact total precipitation in the metro is running just 32 percent of average so far this year. Some eye opening numbers.

  • +5.1 degrees temps vs. average at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport through March 16

  • 1.9 inches March snowfall at MSP Airport (average = 6.4 inches)

  • 27.2 inch season snowfall at MSP (that's 21 inches below average)

  • .82 inch liquid precipitation so far in 2015

  • 32 percent of average so far this year (average = 2.53 inches)

So far the money is on a drier than average spring season in the Upper Midwest.

Here's the spring drought outlook from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

El Nino springs favor a dry bias across the Upper Midwest.

If the current pattern of drier than average weather continues this spring, expect an early and severe spring grass fire season in Minnesota.

Forecast: Mostly dry and cooler

At least we won't have 70 degree winds fanning any fires that get going this week. Dry Canadian high pressure brings a cooler week. A weak upper air disturbance and warm front bring a fleeting smudge of light rain and snow showers late Wednesday.

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NOAA

Temps run closer to average this week in a month that's now running 5 degrees warmer than average through Monday.

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Weatherspark

The longer range maps hint at a chance of rain or snow next Thursday. Too far out to be credible, yet. At least some hope for meaningful precipitation across southern Minnesota?

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NOAA

Stay tuned.