Sunday flakes? Precious rain likely Tuesday

“If we had no winter, the spring would not be so pleasant: if we did not sometimes taste of adversity, prosperity would not be so welcome." Anne Bradstreet, The Works of Anne Bradstreet

Spring in Minnesota comes reluctantly most years. This weekend is a reminder. The chill in the air reminds us of our latitude. Yet the promise of milder days and landscape greening spring rain lies just ahead.

A bright sunny Saturday gives way to a gray Sunday capable of a some stray rain and snow showers. Just a reminder the calendar stills reads March. Welcome to spring in Minnesota. Two steps forward, one step back.

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The good weather news?

Tuesday's inbound system looks more promising for some meaningful rain. The Euro model is cranking out temps near 60 again by next Saturday. The sun is now as high in the sky as on Sept. 20. Our slightly wintry hangover this weekend can't stick around much longer.

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Sunday flakes?

The maps for this weekend look typical for the home stretch of March. Minnesota rides the southern edge of a cool Canadian air dome.

A cool but sunny Saturday offers temps in the low 40s. A sputtering Clipper riding south Sunday brings a smudge of snow that could coat fields in southeast Minnesota.

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NOAA

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Global Forecast System output yields a snowy coating for southeast Minnesota from Rochester south and east.

Don't be shocked to see a few flakes in the metro Sunday. I seriously hope this is the last time this spring I have to trot this map out.

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NOAA via wxcaster.com

Here's the longer term breakdown for the next week. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts hints at 60 again by next Saturday.

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Weatherspark

Tuesday system looks promising

Tuesday's inbound low is looking more promising for some meaningful precipitation. Temperatures favor mostly rain with some snow mixing in north of the metro.

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NOAA

The latest seven-day precipitation maps suggest the potential for between a half inch and 1 inch of rain-snow with this system. That would be excellent news for a state that just launched headlong into drought status. Heavier rains straddle the Gulf Coast and Pacific Northwest next week.

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NOAA

The longer range maps hint at a warm up, and another shot at much needed rainfall. I'm still concerned about drought potential this spring, but if the 16-day GFS precipitation output verifies that would be a good thing.

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NOAA via IPS Meteostar

Weather fingers crossed.